Monday, September 02, 2019

Weekly Propagation Forecast Bulletins


Product: Weekly Highlights and Forecasts
:Issued: 2019 Sep 02 0207 UTC
# Prepared by the US Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, Space Weather Prediction Center
# Product description and SWPC web contact www.swpc.noaa.gov/content/subscription-services
#
#                Weekly Highlights and Forecasts
#
Highlights of Solar and Geomagnetic Activity 26 August - 01 September 2019

Solar activity was at very low levels. New Region 2748 (N14, L=205, class/area Bxo/010 on 01 Sep) emerged on the disk, but remained quiet and stable. No Earth-directed CMEs were observed.

No proton events were observed at geosynchronous orbit.

The greater than 2 MeV electron flux at geosynchronous orbit was at moderate levels on 26 Aug, normal levels on 27-30 Aug, high levels on 31 Aug and very high levels on 01 Sep. Electron flux reached a maximum of 53,007 pfu at 01/2015 UTC.

Geomagnetic field activity ranged from quiet to unsettled levels on 26-27 Aug due to influence from a weak, negative polarity CH HSS. Quiet conditions persisted from late on 27 Aug through midday on 30 Aug. From midday on 30 Aug through 01 Sep, field activity increased to unsettled to G1 (minor) and G2 (moderate) levels as Earth came under the influence of a large, recurrent positive polarity CH HSS. 30 Aug saw a SSBC from a negative to a positive sector in advance of a CIR, all preceding the CH HSS. 31 Aug and 01 Sep observed active to G1 and G2 storm conditions. Wind speeds averaged about 750 km/s during this time frame with a peak of 835 km/s observed early on 01 September.

Forecast of Solar and Geomagnetic Activity 02 September - 28 September 2019

Solar activity is expected to be at very low levels.

No proton events are expected at geosynchronous orbit.

The greater than 2 MeV electron flux at geosynchronous orbit is expected to be at high to very high levels on 02-13 Sep and again on 27-28 Sep. Normal to moderate levels are expected on 14-26 Sep.

Geomagnetic field activity is expected to be at G1 (minor) storm 27-28 Sep due to positive polarity CH HSS influence. Unsettled levels are expected on 03, 07-08, 23, and 26 Sep due to recurrent CH
HSS effects.

Product: 27-day Space Weather Outlook Table 27DO.txt
:Issued: 2019 Sep 02 0207 UTC
# Prepared by the US Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, Space Weather Prediction Center
# Product description and SWPC web contact www.swpc.noaa.gov/content/subscription-services
#
#      27-day Space Weather Outlook Table
#                Issued 2019-09-02
#
#   UTC      Radio Flux   Planetary   Largest
#  Date       10.7 cm      A Index    Kp Index
2019 Sep 02      68          24          5
2019 Sep 03      68           8          3
2019 Sep 04      68           5          2
2019 Sep 05      68           5          2
2019 Sep 06      68           5          2
2019 Sep 07      68           8          3
2019 Sep 08      68           8          3
2019 Sep 09      68           5          2
2019 Sep 10      67           5          2
2019 Sep 11      67           5          2
2019 Sep 12      67           5          2
2019 Sep 13      67           5          2
2019 Sep 14      67           5          2
2019 Sep 15      67           5          2
2019 Sep 16      67           5          2
2019 Sep 17      67           5          2
2019 Sep 18      67           5          2
2019 Sep 19      67           5          2
2019 Sep 20      67           5          2
2019 Sep 21      67           5          2
2019 Sep 22      67           5          2
2019 Sep 23      68           8          3
2019 Sep 24      68           5          2
2019 Sep 25      68           5          2
2019 Sep 26      68          10          3
2019 Sep 27      68          35          6
2019 Sep 28      68          44          6
(NOAA)