Weekly Propagation Forecast Bulletins

Product: Weekly Highlights and Forecasts
:Issued: 2020 Jan 20 0748 UTC
# Prepared by the US Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, Space Weather Prediction Center
# Product description and SWPC web contact www.swpc.noaa.gov/content/subscription-services
#
#                Weekly Highlights and Forecasts
#
Highlights of Solar and Geomagnetic Activity 13 - 19 January 2020

Solar activity was very low. The solar disk was spotless. No Earth-directed CMEs were observed.

No proton events were observed at geosynchronous orbit.

The greater than 2 MeV electron flux at geosynchronous orbit was at moderate levels throughout the reporting period.

Geomagnetic field activity was quiet with an isolated period of unsettled conditions on 16 Jan under a nominal solar wind regime.

Forecast of Solar and Geomagnetic Activity 20 January - 15 February 2020

Solar activity is expected to remain at very low levels.

No proton events are expected at geosynchronous orbit.

The greater than 2 MeV electron flux at geosynchronous orbit is expected to reach high levels on 21-22 January, due to recurrent CH HSS influence. Moderate levels are anticipated for the remainder of the outlook period.

Geomagnetic field activity is expected to reach active levels on 20-21 Jan with unsettled conditions forecasted on 22 Jan and 01-05 Feb due to recurrent CH HSS activity.

Product: 27-day Space Weather Outlook Table 27DO.txt
:Issued: 2020 Jan 20 0748 UTC
# Prepared by the US Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, Space Weather Prediction Center
# Product description and SWPC web contact www.swpc.noaa.gov/content/subscription-services
#
#      27-day Space Weather Outlook Table
#                Issued 2020-01-20
#
#   UTC      Radio Flux   Planetary   Largest
#  Date       10.7 cm      A Index    Kp Index
2020 Jan 20      72          12          4
2020 Jan 21      72          12          4
2020 Jan 22      72          10          3
2020 Jan 23      72           5          2
2020 Jan 24      72           5          2
2020 Jan 25      72           5          2
2020 Jan 26      72           5          2
2020 Jan 27      72           5          2
2020 Jan 28      72           5          2
2020 Jan 29      72           5          2
2020 Jan 30      72           5          2
2020 Jan 31      72           5          2
2020 Feb 01      72          10          3
2020 Feb 02      72          10          3
2020 Feb 03      72          10          3
2020 Feb 04      72          10          3
2020 Feb 05      72          10          3
2020 Feb 06      71           5          2
2020 Feb 07      71           5          2
2020 Feb 08      71           5          2
2020 Feb 09      71           5          2
2020 Feb 10      71           5          2
2020 Feb 11      71           5          2
2020 Feb 12      71           5          2
2020 Feb 13      71           5          2
2020 Feb 14      71           5          2
2020 Feb 15      71           5          2
(NOAA)

Weekly Propagation Forecast Bulletins

Product: Weekly Highlights and Forecasts
:Issued: 2020 Jan 06 0724 UTC
# Prepared by the US Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, Space Weather Prediction Center
# Product description and SWPC web contact www.swpc.noaa.gov/content/subscription-services
#
#                Weekly Highlights and Forecasts
#
Highlights of Solar and Geomagnetic Activity 30 December - 05 January 2020

Solar activity was very low. New Region 2755 (S34, L=355, class/area Bxo/020 on 03 Jan) developed on the SE limb on 01 Jan but was in decay by 04 Jan. No Earth-directed CMEs were observed.

No proton events were observed at geosynchronous orbit.

The greater than 2 MeV electron flux at geosynchronous orbit was at normal levels on 30 Dec-04 Jan. Moderate levels were reached on 05 Jan with a maximum flux of 245 pfu observed at 05/1800 UTC.

Geomagnetic field activity was at quiet levels on 30 Dec-02 Jan under nominal solar wind conditions. On 03 Jan, total field increased to 10 nT at 03/0505 UTC with solar wind speed increasing to around 410 km/s. On 04 Jan, a prolonged period of southward Bz was observed reaching a maximum southward deflection of -4 nT. On 05 Jan, total field increased once again to 15 nT at 05/1743 UTC followed by an increase in solar wind speed to near 550 km/s as a negative polarity coronal hole high speed stream (CH HSS) became geoeffective. The geomagnetic field responded with isolated unsettled periods on 03-04 Jan and quiet to active levels on 05 Jan.

Forecast of Solar and Geomagnetic Activity 06 January - 01 February 2020

Solar activity is expected to continue at very low levels.

No proton events are expected at geosynchronous orbit.

The greater than 2 MeV electron flux at geosynchronous orbit is expected to be at normal levels on 08-14 Jan and 23 Jan-01 Feb. Moderate levels are expected on 06-07 Jan and again on 15-22 Jan.

Geomagnetic field activity is expected to reach unsettled levels on 08-10 Jan and 01 Feb. Unsettled to active levels are expected on 06 Jan and14-15 Jan due to recurrent CH HSS effects.

Product: 27-day Space Weather Outlook Table 27DO.txt
:Issued: 2020 Jan 06 0724 UTC
# Prepared by the US Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, Space Weather Prediction Center
# Product description and SWPC web contact www.swpc.noaa.gov/content/subscription-services
#
#      27-day Space Weather Outlook Table
#                Issued 2020-01-06
#
#   UTC      Radio Flux   Planetary   Largest
#  Date       10.7 cm      A Index    Kp Index
2020 Jan 06      72          12          4
2020 Jan 07      72           5          2
2020 Jan 08      72           8          3
2020 Jan 09      72           8          3
2020 Jan 10      72           8          3
2020 Jan 11      72           5          2
2020 Jan 12      71           5          2
2020 Jan 13      70           5          2
2020 Jan 14      70          12          4
2020 Jan 15      70          12          4
2020 Jan 16      70           5          2
2020 Jan 17      70           5          2
2020 Jan 18      70           5          2
2020 Jan 19      70           5          2
2020 Jan 20      70           5          2
2020 Jan 21      70           5          2
2020 Jan 22      70           5          2
2020 Jan 23      70           5          2
2020 Jan 24      70           5          2
2020 Jan 25      71           5          2
2020 Jan 26      72           5          2
2020 Jan 27      72           5          2
2020 Jan 28      72           5          2
2020 Jan 29      72           5          2
2020 Jan 30      72           5          2
2020 Jan 31      72           5          2
2020 Feb 01      72           8          3
(NOAA)

Weekly Propagation Forecast Bulletins

Product: Weekly Highlights and Forecasts
:Issued: 2019 Dec 30 0435 UTC
# Prepared by the US Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, Space Weather Prediction Center
# Product description and SWPC web contact www.swpc.noaa.gov/content/subscription-services
#
#                Weekly Highlights and Forecasts
#
Highlights of Solar and Geomagnetic Activity 23 - 29 December 2019

Solar activity was very low. New Region 2753 (S29, L=122, class/area Bxo/010 on 25 Dec) developed on the visible disk on late on 23 December while Region 2754 (N25, L=191, class/area Axx/010 on 25 Dec) developed on 24 Dec. Both regions were inactive and decayed to plage on 26 Dec. No Earth-directed CMEs were observed during the period.

No proton events were observed at geosynchronous orbit.

The greater than 2 MeV electron flux at geosynchronous orbit was at normal levels on 27-29 Dec and reached moderate levels on 23-26 Dec. The maximum flux of the period was 462 pfu observed at 25/1810 UTC.

Geomagnetic field activity ranged from quiet to unsettled levels. A slight enhancement in solar wind parameters occurred beginning late on 25 Dec as a weak negative polarity coronal hole high speed stream (CH HSS) became geoeffective. Total field increased to a maximum of 9 nT at 25/1920 UTC while solar wind speed reached a maximum of 415 km/s at 26/1435 UTC. The geomagnetic field responded with an isolated unsettled period early on 26 Dec.

Forecast of Solar and Geomagnetic Activity 30 December - 25 January 2020

Solar activity is expected to continue at very low levels.

No proton events are expected at geosynchronous orbit.

The greater than 2 MeV electron flux at geosynchronous orbit is expected to be at normal levels on 06-14 and 23-25 Jan while moderate levels are expected on 30 Dec-05 Jan and 15-22 Jan.

Geomagnetic field activity is expected to reach unsettled levels on 30 Dec-01 Jan due to weak CH HSS activity. Unsettled to active levels are expected on 14-15 Jan due to recurrent CH HSS activity.

Product: 27-day Space Weather Outlook Table 27DO.txt
:Issued: 2019 Dec 30 0435 UTC
# Prepared by the US Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, Space Weather Prediction Center
# Product description and SWPC web contact www.swpc.noaa.gov/content/subscription-services
#
#      27-day Space Weather Outlook Table
#                Issued 2019-12-30
#
#   UTC      Radio Flux   Planetary   Largest
#  Date       10.7 cm      A Index    Kp Index
2019 Dec 30      72           8          3
2019 Dec 31      72           8          3
2020 Jan 01      71           8          3
2020 Jan 02      71           5          2
2020 Jan 03      70           5          2
2020 Jan 04      70           5          2
2020 Jan 05      70           5          2
2020 Jan 06      70           5          2
2020 Jan 07      70           5          2
2020 Jan 08      70           5          2
2020 Jan 09      70           5          2
2020 Jan 10      70           5          2
2020 Jan 11      70           5          2
2020 Jan 12      72           5          2
2020 Jan 13      72           5          2
2020 Jan 14      72          12         4
2020 Jan 15      72          12         4
2020 Jan 16      72           5          2
2020 Jan 17      72           5          2
2020 Jan 18      72           5          2
2020 Jan 19      72           5          2
2020 Jan 20      72           5          2
2020 Jan 21      72           5          2
2020 Jan 22      72           5          2
2020 Jan 23      72           5          2
2020 Jan 24      72           5          2
2020 Jan 25      72           5          2
(NOAA)

Weekly Propagation Forecast Bulletins

Product: Weekly Highlights and Forecasts
:Issued: 2019 Sep 30 0233 UTC
# Prepared by the US Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, Space Weather Prediction Center
# Product description and SWPC web contact www.swpc.noaa.gov/content/subscription-services
#
#                Weekly Highlights and Forecasts
#
Highlights of Solar and Geomagnetic Activity 23 - 29 September 2019

Solar activity was very low throughout the summary period and no active regions with sunspots were observed.

No proton events were observed at geosynchronous orbit.

The greater than 2 MeV electron flux at geosynchronous orbit reached very high levels on 29 Sep with high levels observed on 28 Sep. Normal and normal to moderate flux values were observed throughout the remainder of the week.

Geomagnetic field activity reached G1 (Minor) geomagnetic storm levels on 27-28 Sep due to the influence of a recurrent, positive polarity coronal hole high speed stream (CH HSS). The active conditions were observed on 24 and 29 Sep and quiet or quiet to unsettled conditions were observed throughout the remainder of the period.

Forecast of Solar and Geomagnetic Activity 30 September - 26 October 2019

Solar activity is expected to be very low throughout the outlook period.

No proton events are expected at geosynchronous orbit.

The greater than 2 MeV electron flux at geosynchronous orbit is expected to reach high levels on 30 Sep-12, 14, and 25-26 Oct. Normal and normal to moderate levels are expected for the remainder of the outlook period.

Geomagnetic field activity is expected to reach G1 (Minor) geomagnetic storm levels on 24-25 Oct and active levels on 06, 21, and 26 Oct due to coronal hole high speed stream influences.

Product: 27-day Space Weather Outlook Table 27DO.txt
:Issued: 2019 Sep 30 0233 UTC
# Prepared by the US Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, Space Weather Prediction Center
# Product description and SWPC web contact www.swpc.noaa.gov/content/subscription-services
#
#      27-day Space Weather Outlook Table
#                Issued 2019-09-30
#
#   UTC      Radio Flux   Planetary   Largest
#  Date       10.7 cm      A Index    Kp Index
2019 Sep 30      68          10          3
2019 Oct 01      68           8          3
2019 Oct 02      68           8          3
2019 Oct 03      68          12          4
2019 Oct 04      68           8          3
2019 Oct 05      68           8          3
2019 Oct 06      68          12          4
2019 Oct 07      68           5          2
2019 Oct 08      68           5          2
2019 Oct 09      68           5          2
2019 Oct 10      68           8          3
2019 Oct 11      68           5          2
2019 Oct 12      68           8          3
2019 Oct 13      68          10          3
2019 Oct 14      68           8          3
2019 Oct 15      68           8          3
2019 Oct 16      68           5          2
2019 Oct 17      68           5          2
2019 Oct 18      68           5          2
2019 Oct 19      68           5          2
2019 Oct 20      68           5          2
2019 Oct 21      68          12          4
2019 Oct 22      68           5          2
2019 Oct 23      68           5          2
2019 Oct 24      68          18          5
2019 Oct 25      68          25          5
2019 Oct 26      68          12          4
(NOAA)

Weekly Propagation Forecast Bulletins

Autumn Equinox - 23 Septmebr 2019 (SImon's World Map)

Product: Weekly Highlights and Forecasts
:Issued: 2019 Sep 23 0156 UTC
# Prepared by the US Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, Space Weather Prediction Center
# Product description and SWPC web contact www.swpc.noaa.gov/content/subscription-services
#
#                Weekly Highlights and Forecasts
#
Highlights of Solar and Geomagnetic Activity 16 - 22 September 2019

Solar activity was at very low levels. No sunspots were observed on the visible disk. An anpproximately 20 degree filament erupted near S35W02 around 19/2200 UTC which produced a narrow, slow-moving CME signature near the Sun-Earth line. Modeling of the event suggested most of the ejecta was oriented south and eastward of Earth's orbit; however, Earth may still observe weak influence from the periphery of the CME.

No proton events were observed at geosynchronous orbit.

The greater than 2 MeV electron flux at geosynchronous orbit was at normal to moderate levels from 16-21 Sep and dropped to just normal levels through 22 Sep.

Geomagnetic field activity was quiet to active conditions. Elevated wind speeds from a waning positive polarity CH HSS produced isolated active conditions on 16 Sep. Variable phi angle on 17 Sep suggested influence from a SSBC, cause a period of isolated active conditions.  Quiet to unsettled levels on 18 Sep decreased to just quiet levels on 19-20 Sep. A brief period of southward Bz produced a single period of unsettled on 21 Sep. The remainder of the summary period was quiet.

Forecast of Solar and Geomagnetic Activity 23 September - 19 October 2019

Solar activity is expected to be at very low levels over the outlook period.

No proton events are expected at geosynchronous orbit.

The greater than 2 MeV electron flux at geosynchronous orbit is expected to range from normal to high levels. High levels are expected on 28 Sep - 12 Oct and 14 Oct; moderate levels are expected on 24-27 Sep, 13 Oct, and 15-18 Oct. The remainder of the outlook period is expected to be at normal levels. All enhancements in electron flux are in anticipation of multiple, recurrent CH HSSs.

Geomagnetic field activity is expected to be at quiet to G2 (Moderate) geomagnetic storm levels. G2 levels are expected on 28 Sep followed by G1 (Minor) geomagnetic levels on 29 Sep. Active conditions are expected on 23-25 Sep, 30 Sep and 06 Oct. Unsettled conditions are expected on 26-27 Sep, 01-03 Oct, 10 Oct and 12-15 Oct. The remainder of the outlook period is expected to be at quiet levels. All enhancements in geomagnetic activity are in anticipation of multiple, recurrent CH HSSs.

Product: 27-day Space Weather Outlook Table 27DO.txt
:Issued: 2019 Sep 23 0156 UTC
# Prepared by the US Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, Space Weather Prediction Center
# Product description and SWPC web contact www.swpc.noaa.gov/content/subscription-services
#
#      27-day Space Weather Outlook Table
#                Issued 2019-09-23
#
#   UTC      Radio Flux   Planetary   Largest
#  Date       10.7 cm      A Index    Kp Index
2019 Sep 23      68          12          4
2019 Sep 24      68          12          4
2019 Sep 25      68          12          4
2019 Sep 26      68           8          3
2019 Sep 27      68           8          3
2019 Sep 28      68          38          6
2019 Sep 29      68          28          5
2019 Sep 30      68          10          4
2019 Oct 01      68           8          3
2019 Oct 02      68          10          3
2019 Oct 03      68           8          3
2019 Oct 04      68           5          2
2019 Oct 05      68           5          2
2019 Oct 06      68          12          4
2019 Oct 07      68           5          2
2019 Oct 08      68           5          2
2019 Oct 09      68           5          2
2019 Oct 10      68           8          3
2019 Oct 11      68           5          2
2019 Oct 12      68           8          3
2019 Oct 13      68          10          3
2019 Oct 14      68           8          3
2019 Oct 15      68           8          3
2019 Oct 16      68           5          2
2019 Oct 17      68           5          2
2019 Oct 18      68           5          2
2019 Oct 19      68           5          2
(NOAA)

Weekly Propagation Forecast Bulletins

Product: Weekly Highlights and Forecasts
:Issued: 2019 Sep 02 0207 UTC
# Prepared by the US Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, Space Weather Prediction Center
# Product description and SWPC web contact www.swpc.noaa.gov/content/subscription-services
#
#                Weekly Highlights and Forecasts
#
Highlights of Solar and Geomagnetic Activity 26 August - 01 September 2019

Solar activity was at very low levels. New Region 2748 (N14, L=205, class/area Bxo/010 on 01 Sep) emerged on the disk, but remained quiet and stable. No Earth-directed CMEs were observed.

No proton events were observed at geosynchronous orbit.

The greater than 2 MeV electron flux at geosynchronous orbit was at moderate levels on 26 Aug, normal levels on 27-30 Aug, high levels on 31 Aug and very high levels on 01 Sep. Electron flux reached a maximum of 53,007 pfu at 01/2015 UTC.

Geomagnetic field activity ranged from quiet to unsettled levels on 26-27 Aug due to influence from a weak, negative polarity CH HSS. Quiet conditions persisted from late on 27 Aug through midday on 30 Aug. From midday on 30 Aug through 01 Sep, field activity increased to unsettled to G1 (minor) and G2 (moderate) levels as Earth came under the influence of a large, recurrent positive polarity CH HSS. 30 Aug saw a SSBC from a negative to a positive sector in advance of a CIR, all preceding the CH HSS. 31 Aug and 01 Sep observed active to G1 and G2 storm conditions. Wind speeds averaged about 750 km/s during this time frame with a peak of 835 km/s observed early on 01 September.

Forecast of Solar and Geomagnetic Activity 02 September - 28 September 2019

Solar activity is expected to be at very low levels.

No proton events are expected at geosynchronous orbit.

The greater than 2 MeV electron flux at geosynchronous orbit is expected to be at high to very high levels on 02-13 Sep and again on 27-28 Sep. Normal to moderate levels are expected on 14-26 Sep.

Geomagnetic field activity is expected to be at G1 (minor) storm 27-28 Sep due to positive polarity CH HSS influence. Unsettled levels are expected on 03, 07-08, 23, and 26 Sep due to recurrent CH
HSS effects.

Product: 27-day Space Weather Outlook Table 27DO.txt
:Issued: 2019 Sep 02 0207 UTC
# Prepared by the US Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, Space Weather Prediction Center
# Product description and SWPC web contact www.swpc.noaa.gov/content/subscription-services
#
#      27-day Space Weather Outlook Table
#                Issued 2019-09-02
#
#   UTC      Radio Flux   Planetary   Largest
#  Date       10.7 cm      A Index    Kp Index
2019 Sep 02      68          24          5
2019 Sep 03      68           8          3
2019 Sep 04      68           5          2
2019 Sep 05      68           5          2
2019 Sep 06      68           5          2
2019 Sep 07      68           8          3
2019 Sep 08      68           8          3
2019 Sep 09      68           5          2
2019 Sep 10      67           5          2
2019 Sep 11      67           5          2
2019 Sep 12      67           5          2
2019 Sep 13      67           5          2
2019 Sep 14      67           5          2
2019 Sep 15      67           5          2
2019 Sep 16      67           5          2
2019 Sep 17      67           5          2
2019 Sep 18      67           5          2
2019 Sep 19      67           5          2
2019 Sep 20      67           5          2
2019 Sep 21      67           5          2
2019 Sep 22      67           5          2
2019 Sep 23      68           8          3
2019 Sep 24      68           5          2
2019 Sep 25      68           5          2
2019 Sep 26      68          10          3
2019 Sep 27      68          35          6
2019 Sep 28      68          44          6
(NOAA)

Weekly Propagation Forecast Bulletins

Product: Weekly Highlights and Forecasts
:Issued: 2019 Aug 12 0624 UTC
# Prepared by the US Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, Space Weather Prediction Center
# Product description and SWPC web contact www.swpc.noaa.gov/content/subscription-services
#
#                Weekly Highlights and Forecasts
#
Highlights of Solar and Geomagnetic Activity 05 - 11 August 2019

Solar activity was very low. No Earth-directed CMEs were observed during the period.

No proton events were observed at geosynchronous orbit.

The greater than 2 MeV electron flux at geosynchronous orbit was at moderate levels on 05 Aug and at high levels from 06-11 Aug. The largest flux of the period was 26,161 pfu observed at 07/1930 UTC.

Geomagnetic field activity was at quiet to G1 (Minor) storm levels over the period. The period began as a positive polarity coronal hole high speed stream (CH HSS) was becoming geoeffective. Total field increased to 23 nT by 05/0855 UTC as the Bz component became variable between +11 nT/-19 nT. Solar wind speed reached a maximum of 745 km/s at 06/0750 UTC.

The geomagnetic field responded with four consecutive periods of G1 (Minor) storm levels on 05 Aug, followed by quiet to unsettled levels on 06 Aug. Two further enhancements in solar wind speed were observed on 08 Aug and on 09-10 Aug. The first peaked around 575 km/s while the second peaked at approximately 650 km/s. However, no significant increases in total field were observed. Quiet conditions were observed on 07 Aug with quiet to unsettled levels on 08-11 Aug.

Forecast of Solar and Geomagnetic Activity 12 August - 07 September 2019

Solar activity is expected to continue at very low levels for the forecast period (12 Aug-07 Sep).

No proton events are expected at geosynchronous orbit.

The greater than 2 MeV electron flux at geosynchronous orbit is expected to reach high levels on12-16 Aug and again on 02-07 Sep due to recurrent CH HSS influence.

Geomagnetic field activity is expected to be reach unsettled levels on 12 Aug, 16 Aug, 26-28 Aug, and 06-07 Sep due to recurrent CH HSS activity. Unsettled to active levels are expected on 01-02 Sep with G1 (Minor) storming likely on 01 Sep also due to recurrent CH HSS activity.

Product: 27-day Space Weather Outlook Table 27DO.txt
:Issued: 2019 Aug 12 0625 UTC
# Prepared by the US Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, Space Weather Prediction Center
# Product description and SWPC web contact www.swpc.noaa.gov/content/subscription-services
#
#      27-day Space Weather Outlook Table
#                Issued 2019-08-12
#
#   UTC      Radio Flux   Planetary   Largest
#  Date       10.7 cm      A Index    Kp Index
2019 Aug 12      67           8          3
2019 Aug 13      67           5          2
2019 Aug 14      67           5          2
2019 Aug 15      67           5          2
2019 Aug 16      67           8          3
2019 Aug 17      67           5          2
2019 Aug 18      67           5          2
2019 Aug 19      67           5          2
2019 Aug 20      67           5          2
2019 Aug 21      67           5          2
2019 Aug 22      67           5          2
2019 Aug 23      67           5          2
2019 Aug 24      67           5          2
2019 Aug 25      67           5          2
2019 Aug 26      67           8          3
2019 Aug 27      67           8          3
2019 Aug 28      67           8          3
2019 Aug 29      67           5          2
2019 Aug 30      67           5          2
2019 Aug 31      67           5          2
2019 Sep 01      67          38          5
2019 Sep 02      67          14          3
2019 Sep 03      67           5          2
2019 Sep 04      67           5          2
2019 Sep 05      67           5          2
2019 Sep 06      67           8          3
2019 Sep 07      67           8          3
(NOAA)