ARLP002 Propagation de K7RA

We just saw eight days of sunspots, but now the solar disk is spot-free. The big story this week is the sighting of the first spot of sunspot Cycle 24. The sunspot has now faded away, but a new spot is emerging near the solar equator, and it has the same polarity as the Cycle 24 spot last week. This is odd, because the spots from the new cycle should emerge at high latitudes, like last week's did.

News reports this week said Cycle 24 has begun, but actually Cycle 23 hasn't ended yet. Cycle 24 spots should gradually increase in number, while Cycle 23 spots fade away. Some time around solar minimum we should see the count of Cycle 24 spots equal, and then outnumber Cycle 23 spots. I believe that is really the start of the next cycle, when we begin to see more Cycle 24 spots emerging than Cycle 23 spots.

Average sunspot numbers this week were nearly 10 points above last week's average, at 13.3. Unsettled geomagnetic conditions were observed on January 5-8. Last week the prediction for solar flux for earlier this week looked optimistic. Go to
http://www.swpc.noaa.gov/ftpmenu/forecasts/45DF.html and click on the December 30 forecast.

Note the prediction for solar flux of 85 for January 4-11. Then click back, and look at December 31. On that day it predicted a solar flux of 90 for January 5-7. The January 1 prediction is even higher at solar flux 95 for January 7-8. The next day, January 2 shows flux at 95 for January 7-9. January 3 is less optimistic, with flux peaking at 90 for January 9-11, although some of the dates are mislabeled. January 4 shows flux peaking for one day, January 6, at 85. None of those predictions came to pass, and solar flux was actually below 80 the entire week.

NOAA and the Air Force predict planetary A index values for January 11-17 at 5, 5, 15, 15, 10, 12 and 10. If you want an updated forecast after 2100z today, use the URL above and go to the January 10 forecast (if January 11 isn't shown yet). Then change a series of characters in the URL from 011045DF.txt to 011145DF.txt, and hit the Enter key. You should see an updated forecast for solar flux and planetary A index before the link appears on the main page.

Australia's IPS Radio and Space Services released a warning for a geomagnetic disturbance caused by a high speed solar wind stream from a coronal hole for January 13-14. This is reflected in the forecast in the previous paragraph, calling for a planetary A index of 15 for both those days. Geophysical Institute Prague predicts quiet conditions January 11-12, quiet to unsettled January 13, active conditions January 14, unsettled to active January 15, and unsettled conditions January 16-17.

For HF radio propagation, we would generally like to see sunspot numbers high, and A index geomagnetic readings low.

Last week Randy Crews, W7TJ reported excellent short path propagation to Europe on 160 and 80 meters on the night of January 3. Bob Culbertson, WA3YGQ of Cranberry, Pennsylvania said 80 meter propagation to Europe was the best he ever heard, with signals 20 db over S9. At 1230z he could hear Japan quiet strongly.

But Ken Gordon, W7EKB of Moscow, Idaho runs regional message traffic on 80 meters, and reported that the same night he experienced terrible conditions on 80 meters. Ken was net control for the RN7 net on 3560 kHz at 0330z and again at 0530z, and he could hardly hear anyone. But stations sitting at 800 miles and beyond were booming in. Lately he's had an experience earlier in the evening on a net at 0030z on 3910 kHz in which signals from Montana are readable, but 10-15 minutes later they fade away and signals from the West Coast come in quite strong. The skip seems to be going long.

Jon Jones, N0JK of Wichita, Kansas sent comments regarding 10 meter Winter E-skip. He noted a number of strong E-skip openings on Saturday night in December's 10 Meter Contest. He made many contacts running QRP into a 6-meter loop.

Jon said he agrees with Bill Van Alstyne, W5WVO of Rio Rancho, New Mexico, that "most of the winter E-skip occurs during late afternoon and early evening hours. Summer E-skip tends to occur more frequently in the mid-morning hours, with a secondary peak in the evening." He wonders why Winter and off-season E-skip is more likely in the evening, but Summer E-skip seems more frequent in the morning?

If you would like to make a comment or have a tip for our readers, email the author at, k7ra@arrl.net.

For more information concerning radio propagation, see the ARRL Technical Information Service at, http://www.arrl.org/tis/info/propagation.html. For a detailed explanation of the numbers used in this bulletin see, http://www.arrl.org/tis/info/k9la-prop.html. An archive of past propagation bulletins is at, http://www.arrl.org/w1aw/prop/. Monthly propagation charts between four USA regions and twelve overseas locations are at http://www.arrl.org/qst/propcharts/.

Sunspot numbers for January 3 through 9 were 13, 26, 12, 12, 14, 16 and 0 with a mean of 13.3. 10.7 cm flux was 79.3, 79, 79.7, 79.2, 77.7, 75.5, and 76.5 with a mean of 78.1. Estimated planetary A indices were 1, 2, 18, 13, 12, 13 and 6 with a mean of 9.3. Estimated mid-latitude A indices were 1, 2, 13, 12, 10, 11 and 6, with a mean of 7.9.

ARLP001 Propagation de K7RA

It's a new year, and now time to review 2007 sunspot cycle progression. In 2006 there was a consensus that solar minimum would occur in early 2007, but we actually may not be there still. The latest projection in the Weekly Preliminary Report and forecast (see http://www.swpc.noaa.gov/weekly/ and page 8 in the January 2 issue) shows the bottom of the cycle between December 2007 and April 2008. Note the two predictions for the next cycle, a high estimate and a low estimate, reflecting the split consensus for the Cycle 24 prediction.

Also note the monthly (even though the URL says weekly) forecast issued on January 2 at,
http://sec.noaa.gov/ftpdir/weekly/Predict.txt shows a cycle minimum for February 2008.

Exactly one year ago in Propagation Forecast Bulletin ARLP001 we wrote that 2007 would be "the year we'll likely see the end of sunspot Cycle 23, the beginning of Cycle 24, and the minima between cycles." Now a year later we might say the same about 2008.

The yearly average of the daily sunspot numbers for 1999-2007 were 136.3, 173, 170.3, 176.6, 109.2, 68.6, 48.9, 26.1 and 12.8. Average daily solar flux for the same years was 153.7, 179.6, 181.6, 179.5, 129.2, 106.6, 91.9, 79.9 and 73.1.

Compare 2006-2007 above with the last solar minimum, when in 1995-1997 the yearly averages of sunspot numbers were 28.7, 13.2 and 30.7.

In February 2007 we began calculating and tracking a 3-month moving average of daily sunspot numbers. This was done to try to spot trends. A three month period seemed like it might give us some smoothing of the often volatile daily numbers, but much shorter than the 12-month smoothed values.

Apr 06 38.5
May 06 39.7
Jun 06 28.9
Jul 06 23.3
Aug 06 23.5
Sep 06 21.2
Oct 06 24.1
Nov 06 23.1
Dec 06 27.3
Jan 07 22.7
Feb 07 18.5
Mar 07 11.2
Apr 07 12.2
May 07 15.8
Jun 07 18.7
Jul 07 15.4
Aug 07 10.2
Sep 07 5.4
Oct 07 3
Nov 07 6.9

Why is November the last month on our list? Because it is the center month for the latest 3-month average, which is for October through December. If we were instead calculating a 12-month moving average, at the end of December the latest number would center on
June 2007.

Last week's bulletin reported 10-meter openings, and said that E-skip was unexpected at this time of year. Actually there is a small peak in sporadic-E propagation centered around Winter
Solstice, about 1/5 to 1/8 the intensity of the Summer sporadic-E season. The propagation reported by K7HP occurred just hours from the precise time of solstice.

One of several who spoke up concerning Winter E season in response to last week's bulletin was Bill Van Alstyne, W5WVO of Rio Rancho, New Mexico. Bill said that Winter E-skip is, "more likely to happen during the evening hours than during the morning, while Summer Es occurs during morning and evening about equally -- though that's just percentages and probability. We just had a nice morning Es opening a couple days ago on 6 meters."

Another Winter solstice 10-meter report came from Joaquin Montoya, EA2CCG, who reported working a number of Italian and French stations with his "fishing rod antenna." If you can read Spanish, or even want to try out one of those online language translators, check out his blog at, http://ea2ccg.blogspot.com/.

A December 30 10-meter E-skip report came from Oleh Kernytskyy, KD7WPJ of Saint George, Utah. In the morning he heard a strong beacon signal from K5AB, then he called CQ on CW with no response. He moved to phone and had many contacts, including the states of UT, NM, TX, OK, AR and FL.

See http://www.amfmdx.net/propagation/Es.html for an interesting treatment of E-layer propagation.

So what's up for the next week? Sunspot 978 reappeared, and the daily sunspot numbers for Tuesday, Wednesday and Thursday were 11, 13 and 13, while solar flux was 79.4, 79.6 and 79.3. The US Air Force and NOAA Space Weather Prediction Center forecast rising solar flux values of 80 for January 4-5, 85 for January 6-8, and 90 for January 9-11. This is a slight move downward and outward. As recently as two days ago, they were predicting flux of 95 for
January 7-9.

They also forecast planetary A index for January 4-10 of 10, 10, 5, 8, 8, 5 and 5. The next unsettled to active period is predicted for January 13-14 with a planetary A index of 15. After 2100z today look for an updated forecast of solar flux and A index at http://sec.noaa.gov/ftpdir/forecasts/45DF/010445DF.txt. Please note this is a hacked URL, that only works after 2100z Friday. It is updated daily, so for Saturday, January 5 after 2100z, the URL would end /010545DF.txt. This hack was explained back in October 2007, in ARLP044, found at http://www.arrl.org/w1aw/prop/2007-arlp044.html.

Geophysical Institute Prague predicts quiet to unsettled conditions January 4-5, unsettled January 6-7, quiet to unsettled again on January 8, and quiet conditions January 9-10.

The last few days have had very quiet with stable geomagnetic conditions. This should correlate with lower absorption of HF signals. You can see interesting very quiet numbers at,
http://www.sec.noaa.gov/ftpdir/indices/DGD.txt. Note the planetary A index for January 2-3 was 1 for both days, but all of the K index readings for those days were 0. Contrast that with the high latitude college (Fairbanks, Alaska) readings for January 2. There is just one K index reading of 1, but the A index reading for that day is 0.

KN4LF writes that he has decided to make his daily propagation forecasts free again, and you can see them at, http://www.kn4lf.com/kn4lf6h.htm. He also has a sign-up option there for email bulletins.

Last, today I am buying a used car from a private party found via an online ad. The seller turned out to be the grand-daughter of the original holder of VE7BR, A.J. Spilsbury, a remarkable Canadian radio pioneer who manufactured HF gear for marine and wilderness
communications in British Columbia. Spilsbury was also an accomplished painter, photographer, author of several books, and he founded a regional airline. He became a Silent Key in 2003 at age 97. I found information on him by googling his last name alone, or combined with other search terms such as "radio."

If you would like to make a comment or have a tip for our readers, email the author at, k7ra@arrl.net.

For more information concerning radio propagation, see the ARRL Technical Information Service web page at, http://www.arrl.org/tis/info/propagation.html. For a detailed explanation of the numbers used in this bulletin see, http://www.arrl.org/tis/info/k9la-prop.html. An archive of past propagation bulletins is at, http://www.arrl.org/w1aw/prop/. Monthly propagation charts between four USA regions and twelve overseas locations are at, http://www.arrl.org/qst/propcharts/.

Sunspot numbers for December 27 through January 2 were 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 11 and 13 with a mean of 3.4. 10.7 cm flux was 72.1, 71.8, 72.7, 75, 76.7, 79.4, and 79.6 with a mean of 75.3. Estimated planetary A indices were 4, 2, 2, 2, 2, 3 and 1 with a mean of 2.3. Estimated mid-latitude A indices were 4, 2, 2, 3, 2, 2 and 1, with a mean of 2.3.

Propagation Forecast Bulletin 53 ARLP053

Sunspot 978 faded this week, with Tuesday, December 18 its last day visible. The average daily sunspot number dropped nearly 13 points from last week to 24.1, and average daily solar flux was down over three points to 83.9. Geomagnetic indicators were up, with the average daily planetary A index up three points to 7.4, and the mid-latitude A index up two points to 5.4.

Sunspot 978 held no indication for the next sunspot cycle, because the magnetic polarity was the same as spots from Cycle 23, which is now ending. It was also at mid-latitude, and spots from a new cycle tend to be high latitude. But there was quite an interest this week in a high-latitude area of reverse magnetic polarity. So far this has not turned into an actual sunspot, so we wait. You can read about it at, http://sidc.oma.be/news/100/welcome.html.

On Wednesday, December 19, Proplab-Pro version 3 was finally released. It claims to be "the most advanced propagation ray-tracing system in the world," and works on personal computers running Windows Xp or Vista. The introduction to the manual says it "is a state-of-the-art software package not for the feint of heart." Since the word "feint" implies a daring move, I suspect the author intended to say "faint," implying timidity in this context. With only a short time to look it over, I can say that it is quite complex. You can find information at, http://www.spacew.com/proplab/.

Tomorrow, December 22, 2007, the Sun reaches its lowest point in the sky, marking Winter Solstice for the Northern Hemisphere, which begins at 0608 GMT. For much of North America, this happens late tonight, and this week we begin the long shift toward more daylight. Perhaps better propagation will appear this Spring. The equinox is on March 21, 2008 at 0548 GMT. See an article at, http://aa.usno.navy.mil/faq/docs/dark_days.php for an explanation from the U.S. Naval Observatory on why the earliest sunset in the mid-northern latitudes is around December 8, the latest sunrise is around January 5, with solstice in the middle.

We've seen no sunspots for a couple of days, and if this continues through the end of the year (10 days from now) the average sunspot number for the calendar year will be just 12.8. We will know for sure by the time the first propagation forecast bulletin of 2008 comes out, on January 4. The daily sunspot numbers averaged over each calendar year from January 1, 2001 through December 31, 2007 should be 170.3, 176.7, 109.2, 68.6, 48.9, 26.1 and 12.8. By comparison, the average daily sunspot numbers for each year, 1995-1997 (the previous solar minimum) were 28.7, 13.2 and 30.7. It seems 2007 must have been a solar minimum year, but of course dividing the data into calendar years is completely arbitrary.

We may not end the year with a blank Sun. The predicted solar flux from NOAA and the US Air Force for December 21-22 is 72, 71, and then 70 for December 23-28, then rising to 75 December 29 through January 1, then 80 for January 2-3, and 85 for January 4-11. Recently when solar flux was above 80 for ten days, sunspot numbers ranged from 24 to 43.

The predicted planetary A index for December 21-23 is 15, 10 and 8, then dropping to 5 for December 24 through January 5. Geophysical Institute Prague predicts unsettled conditions December 21-22, quiet to unsettled December 23, and quiet December 24-27.

If you would like to make a comment or have a tip for our readers, email the author at, k7ra@arrl.net.

For more information concerning radio propagation, see the ARRL Technical Information Service at, http://www.arrl.org/tis/info/propagation.html. For a detailed explanation of the numbers used in this bulletin see, http://www.arrl.org/tis/info/k9la-prop.html. An archive of past propagation bulletins is at, http://www.arrl.org/w1aw/prop/. Monthly propagation charts between four USA regions and twelve overseas locations are at, http://www.arrl.org/qst/propcharts/.

Sunspot numbers for December 13 through 19 were 39, 35, 39, 28, 14, 14 and 0 with a mean of 24.1. 10.7 cm flux was 93.8, 91.9, 88.9, 81.7, 79.5, 76.8, and 74.5 with a mean of 83.9. Estimated planetary A indices were 4, 2, 1, 2, 17, 18 and 8 with a mean of 7.4. Estimated mid-latitude A indices were 3, 2, 2, 1, 12, 11 and 7, with a mean of 5.4.

ARLP052 Propagation de K7RA

Sunspot 978 made a strong showing this week, and daily sunspot numbers are up as a result. The average daily sunspot number for this week rose over 25 points to 36.7, and average daily solar flux rose over 14 points to 87.2. The sunspot numbers on December 9-11 were 42, 43 and 44. Sunspot numbers haven't been nearly this high since July 14-15 of 2007, when it was 41 both days. The daily sunspot number hasn't been higher since June 2 to June 8 of this year, when it was 45, 58, 58, 63, 47, 59 and 51.

You can make your own animation of the emergence and movement of sunspot 978 with photos on http://www.spaceweather.com. Just click on http://snurl.com/ss978 and in the URL field change /06dec07/ to /07dec07/, hit the Enter key, then change it to /08dec07/, hit Enter, and repeat until you reach /13dec07/ (14dec07 will probably also work by the time you read this bulletin). Now you can use your browser's forward and back keys to animate the sunspot and watch it move. It is a big sunspot.

Geomagnetic activity was very low, although it was slightly unsettled around December 11-12 at northern latitudes. But take a look at the table at, http://snurl.com/geokna. Note the absence of any geomagnetic activity in the far north, represented by the strings of zeros for Alaska's College A and K index from November 30 to December 9. The K index is measured every three hours, or eight times per day. Notice in the 64 readings from 1200z December 1 to 0900z December 9, the College K index rose from 0 to 1 only twice.

Tim Goeppinger, K6GEP of Orange, California wondered why, with the higher sunspot numbers, he didn't see better propagation last weekend in the ARRL 10 Meter Contest. Recently this bulletin mentioned unexpected 10 meter propagation when there were no sunspots. This may be a case where this week's sunspot activity wasn't enough to support F layer propagation at 28 MHz, but perhaps recent 10 meter DX was actually supported by sporadic E propagation.

The US Air Force and the NOAA Space Weather Prediction Center forecast solar flux at 95 for December 14-16, and 90 on December 17-19. This suggests a possible continuation of recent sunspot activity, because sunspot numbers this week were 39-44 while solar flux was 89-94.

They also predict a planetary A index for December 14-20 at 5, 5, 10, 20, 15, 15 and 10, so expect unsettled to active geomagnetic conditions on Monday, December 17. Geophysical Institute Prague predicts quiet conditions December 14-16, active December 17, and unsettled December 18-20.

This week there are a slew of new articles from various sources on solar science and Hinode. Rather than give you a multiple links, let's try something new. Copy and paste or just type http://snurl.com/sunmem1 to your web browser's URL field and hit the Enter key to read the first article. For the second, paste again, but change sunmem1 to sunmem2. Keep up that process through sunmem7 to read all seven articles.

Next week is Winter Solstice in the Northern Hemisphere, on Saturday, December 22. After that the hours of daylight will gradually grow longer, and the increased sunlight will improve propagation on the higher bands. Three months away is the Spring Equinox, and if we have more sunspots by then, so much the better.

In the interim, we can take advantage of the long nights and low geomagnetic activity to enjoy the low bands, 160 and 80 meters.

If you would like to make a comment or have a tip for our readers, email the author at, k7ra@arrl.net.

For more information concerning radio propagation, see the ARRL Technical Information Service at, http://www.arrl.org/tis/info/propagation.html. For a detailed
explanation of the numbers used in this bulletin see, http://www.arrl.org/tis/info/k9la-prop.html. An archive of past propagation bulletins is at, http://www.arrl.org/w1aw/prop/. Monthly propagation charts between four USA regions and twelve overseas
locations are at http://www.arrl.org/qst/propcharts/.

Sunspot numbers for December 6 through 12 were 29, 24, 36, 42, 43, 44 and 39 with a mean of 36.7. 10.7 cm flux was 78.2, 82.2, 86.9, 88.9, 86.9, 93.4, and 93.9 with a mean of 87.2. Estimated planetary A indices were 1, 1, 0, 2, 8, 12 and 7 with a mean of 4.4. Estimated mid-latitude A indices were 1, 0, 1, 1, 5, 9 and 7, with a mean of 3.4.

ARLP051 Propagation de K7RA

More sunspots emerged this week, with every December day so far showing spots. In addition to the sunspot numbers listed through Wednesday at the end of this bulletin, Thursday, December 6 had a sunspot number of 29. The daily sunspot number has not been this high since mid-July. Two spots are now visible, 977 and 978, and the total coverage of the solar surface by sunspots on Thursday is four times Wednesday's coverage. Average daily sunspot number for this report is over twice last week's, rising from 5.4 to 11.1. Sunspots will probably continue until at least December 13.

Geomagnetic numbers have been extremely low, with average daily planetary A index dropping from 8.7 to 2, and average mid-latitude A index declining from 6.3 to 1.1 for the week. Check the quarterly geomagnetic indices since October 1 at, http://www.swpc.noaa.gov/ftpdir/indices/quar_DGD.txt, and note the incredibly stable numbers, especially at high and mid-latitudes, around December 2-6. You don't see strings of zeroes such as this during the higher portions of the solar cycle, and it seems perfectly timed with last week's ARRL 160 meter contest. Heightened or unsettled to active geomagnetic conditions are not expected until December 17.

Geophysical Institute Prague predicts quiet conditions December 7-9, quiet to unsettled December 10, unsettled December 11-12, and quiet to unsettled December 13.

This year we've been tracking a 3-month moving average of daily sunspot numbers to help spot trends that may indicate the bottom of the solar cycle. Here are the 3-month averages since December 2005.

Dec 05 40.6
Jan 06 32.4
Feb 06 18.1
Mar 06 27.7
Apr 06 38.5
May 06 39.7
Jun 06 28.9
Jul 06 23.3
Aug 06 23.5
Sep 06 21.2
Oct 06 24.1
Nov 06 23.1
Dec 06 27.3
Jan 07 22.7
Feb 07 18.5
Mar 07 11.2
Apr 07 12.2
May 07 15.8
Jun 07 18.7
Jul 07 15.4
Aug 07 10.2
Sep 07 5.4
Oct 07 3

The average for September, October and November, centered on October, at 3 is the lowest yet for this side of Cycle 23. This number was derived by adding all daily sunspot numbers for those three months, then dividing the sum (270) by the number of days, which is 91. The result is approximately 2.967, very close to 3.

Monthly sunspot number averages for this year, January through November, are 28.2, 17.3, 9.8, 6.9, 19.8, 20.7, 15.6, 9.9, 4.8, 1.3 and 2.9. October's average of 1.3 is lower than September and October of 1996, during the minimum between Cycles 22 and 23. The monthly averages for August through November, 1996 were 20.7, 2.9, 2.3 and 25.6.

A new table of predicted sunspot and solar flux values for Cycle 24 is in this week's Preliminary Report and Forecast of Geophysical Data at, http://www.swpc.noaa.gov/weekly/ on pages 10-11, December 4 issue. For the past few years the prediction table showed no data beyond this month. The table now runs an additional eight years, through December 2015.

Note the two sets of predicted smoothed sunspot data, reflecting the split consensus among members of the Cycle 24 prediction panel at this year's Space Weather Workshop in Boulder, Colorado. The late decline in Cycle 23 led the group away from an earlier consensus for a strong Cycle 24, and now the panel is split. One faction predicts moderately strong sunspot activity for Cycle 24, the other, moderately weak. You can see from the table of values that the strong camp shows a peak centered near August-November 2011, while the weak cycle faction predicts their peak to occur in May-October 2012.

To get an idea of the relative intensity of these predictions, peruse a table of smoothed sunspot numbers at, http://tinyurl.com/3yzcyz, showing over 3,000 months of smoothed sunspot numbers back to July, 1749, nearly one-quarter millennia. I'm not suggesting comparison of the predicted values with anything further back than the past few cycles, but it is there if you need it.

Another view of predicted values for this ending cycle and the next one is at, http://www.swpc.noaa.gov/ftpdir/weekly/Predict.txt, updated monthly. Another prediction, this time from the Australian government is at, http://www.ips.gov.au/Solar/1/6.

Joe Reisert, W1JR of Amherst, New Hampshire sent an informative email concerning "great polar openings on 80 and 40 meters to Europe at our sunrise."

Joe continued, "Some ops may not be aware of this propagation mainly to Scandinavia from Eastern and Central USA (perhaps even Western USA). It has already started with LA6WEA and SM2EKM coming in strong. This path usually lasts through late January. This is the time of year when the path is sort of gray line as the Northern Europeans may not be in total darkness." Joe says signals can be quite strong, often have auroral flutter, and it doesn't take an elaborate station to work them.

This weekend is the ARRL 10-Meter Contest, beginning 0000z Saturday, December 8, ending 2359z Sunday. See, http://www.arrl.org/contests/rules/2007/10-meters.html for rules. 10 meters may not seem like a good bet at the bottom of the sunspot
cycle, but there have been surprising openings at times. Mark Madcharo, AB2IW of Schenectady, New York is up for the challenge, and plans on drinking lots of coffee.

K0HZI, Jerry Weihrauch of South Saint Paul, Minnesota was one of several who sent a link to an interesting composite of solar images from SOHO, the Solar and Heliospheric Observatory, one representing each year of the current solar cycle. See it at http://antwrp.gsfc.nasa.gov/apod/ap071203.html. An image also appears on http://monitor-post.blogspot.com/, a radio monitoring blog by Larry Van Horn, N5FPW of Brasstown, North Carolina. D. Moore sent a link to an article about powerful X-ray jets observed by the Hinode spacecraft. Read it at, http://science.nasa.gov/headlines/y2007/06dec_xrayjets.htm.

The site http://www.qsonet.com/propadex/ is a link to a tool brought to us by Doug McCormack, VE3EFC of Thunder Bay, Ontario. Cormac Propadex keeps track of f0F2, the highest frequency that can be reflected from the ionosphere, at a U.S. Air Force observatory in Italy. f0F2 is observed with an ionosonde, or ionosphere sounder, which beams RF straight up while sweeping upward in frequency, then detecting the highest frequency reflected back. When we estimate MUF, or Maximum Usable Frequency, with a propagation program such as W6ELprop, it is telling us the probable MUF between two points at the ends of a radio communication path. f0F2 measures the MUF for a particular patch of sky over the observer, in this case in Italy.

Cormac Propadex keeps track of the average f0F2 value for every 15 minutes over a 60 day period, then displays the difference between the current f0F2 and the average for that time of day. When I first looked at this, it displayed a value of +42, which translates to an f0F2 420 kHz higher than the average for that time of day over the past 60 days. Currently at 0856z on Friday it reads -89, meaning the f0F2 value is 890 kHz lower than average. A value of +350 would be for a current f0F2 value 3.5 MHz higher than the 60 day average. Also check out Doug's web site at, http://ve3efc.ca/.

If you would like to make a comment or have a tip for our readers, email the author at, k7ra@arrl.net.

For more information concerning radio propagation, see the ARRL Technical Information Service at, http://www.arrl.org/tis/info/propagation.html. For a detailed
explanation of the numbers used in this bulletin see, http://www.arrl.org/tis/info/k9la-prop.html. An archive of past propagation bulletins is at, http://www.arrl.org/w1aw/prop/. Monthly propagation charts between four USA regions and twelve overseas
locations are at, http://www.arrl.org/qst/propcharts/.

Sunspot numbers for November 29 through December 5 were 0, 0, 13, 26, 13, 13 and 13 with a mean of 11.1. 10.7 cm flux was 71.2, 71.2, 71.9, 73, 72.6, 73.6, and 75.3 with a mean of 72.7. Estimated planetary A indices were 3, 2, 2, 2, 1, 2 and 2 with a mean of 2. Estimated mid-latitude A indices were 2, 1, 2, 2, 0, 0 and 1, with a mean of 1.1.

ARLP050 Propagation de K7RA

Sunspots appeared over several days in the past week. November 24-27 had daily sunspot numbers of 15, 12 and 11. Otherwise, the Sun has been blank. In the previous reporting period, November 15-21, there were only two days with sunspots, and the daily sunspot numbers on both days were 13. The result is the average daily sunspot number from the previous reporting period to the current (November 22-28) reporting period rose from 3.7 to 5.4.

There were no days with geomagnetic storms, and geomagnetic conditions should be quiet over the near term. The next recurring solar wind stream is expected December 17. Expect more weeks of no sunspots, with occasional appearances for a few days at a time. The U.S. Air Force predicts a planetary A index of 5 for the next ten days. For the week, Geophysical Institute Prague predicts quiet geomagnetic conditions for today, November 30, quiet to unsettled December 1, and back to quiet conditions for December 2-6.

This weekend is the ARRL 160 Meter Contest, which begins today at 2200z. This is a CW only contest, and you can study the rules at, http://www.arrl.org/contests/rules/2007/160-meters.html.

Check out a resource for 160 meter propagation in the Northern Hemisphere at, http://solar.spacew.com/www/160pred.html. This is from the same folks who publish the Proplab-Pro HF Radio Propagation Laboratory software. They say version 3.0 is radically updated, and will be released this week, on Monday, December 3. Unlike W6ELprop and some other propagation software, this one is not free, and in fact is likely the most expensive propagation software that hams will run across. But it looks like a powerful program.

Another one that is quite powerful is ACE-HF, with info at, http://acehf.com. ACE stands for "Animated Communications Effectiveness," and it was originally developed for the military by a non-ham, who was able to obtain licensing for it upon retirement. Tomas Hood, NW7US, who writes the monthly propagation column for CQ Magazine has a page devoted to it on his personal web site at, http://hfradio.org/ace-hf.

There were more reports of interesting 10 meter propagation. In the CQ World Wide DX Contest on November 25, Doug Charette, W5GA of Wagoner, Oklahoma reported that he worked V51AS in Namibia around 1700z. Doug uses a very modest commercial multiband vertical antenna, and heard the African station at S-5. He was surprised that he didn't hear many South American stations on 10 meters in the contest.

Also in the contest, Phil Finkle, K6EID of Marietta, Georgia worked 6W1RW (Senegal) on 10 meters at 1409z on Saturday. On the same band on Sunday around 1630z he worked V51AS, D4C (Cape Verde) and 3X5A (Guinea). Walt Knodle, W7TTE of Bend, Oregon heard V51AS very clearly on Sunday morning on 10 meters (he didn't say what time), but the opening only lasted about three minutes. Around the same time he heard LW5EE in Argentina, which also disappeared shortly.

Fabrizio Valdirosa, an Italian shortwave listener in Rome, reports he also observed the 12 meter opening on November 21 reported in our extra post-Thanksgiving Propagation Forecast Bulletin ARLP049. Fabrizio reported that this was the first time he's heard Mozambique on 12 meters, and could hear C91R working North American stations. He wrote, "This opening happened just at the onset of some geomagnetic activity, as I have seen other times. When the Kp index starts to go up, we have good openings on the higher bands, usually from Europe to Africa and South America."

If you would like to make a comment or have a tip for our readers, email the author at, k7ra@arrl.net.

For more information concerning radio propagation, see the ARRL Technical Information Service at, http://www.arrl.org/tis/info/propagation.html. For a detailed
explanation of the numbers used in this bulletin see, http://www.arrl.org/tis/info/k9la-prop.html. An archive of past propagation bulletins is at, http://www.arrl.org/w1aw/prop/. Monthly propagation charts between four USA regions and twelve overseas
locations are at, http://www.arrl.org/qst/propcharts/.

Sunspot numbers for November 22 through 28 were 0, 0, 15, 12, 11, 0 and 0 with a mean of 5.4. 10.7 cm flux was 69.7, 70, 71.3, 70.7, 71.5, 71.4, and 71.2 with a mean of 70.8. Estimated planetary A indices were 13, 10, 12, 11, 8, 4 and 3 with a mean of 8.7. Estimated mid-latitude A indices were 6, 8, 8, 8, 6, 5 and 3, with a mean of 6.3.

ARLP049 Propagation de K7RA

This is an off-schedule post-Thanksgiving bulletin. Because ARRL headquarters was closed on Friday, the day this bulletin is normally released, and the last Propagation Forecast Bulletin ARLP048 was written before the end of our reporting week (which is Thursday through Wednesday), the sunspot, solar flux and geophysical numbers normally at the end of the bulletin are in this bulletin, but were not a part of ARLP048. Friday, November 30 will find us back on the regular schedule with Propagation Forecast Bulletin ARLP050.

The last propagation bulletin reported a brief return of sunspots on November 16-17, when sunspot group 974 emerged, and the sunspot number was 13 on both days. There were six more days of no spots, then November 24 saw the emergence of group 975, with a sunspot number of 15. The next day the sunspot number declined to 12, and the area it covered was about half the area on the previous day.

A solar wind stream on November 20 caused the most active recent geomagnetic day, with the planetary A index rising to 28, and Alaska's high-latitude college A index going to 48. Geomagnetic indices were somewhat unsettled over the last weekend (November 24-25), but are quieting down now, with the expected planetary A index at 10 for today, November 26, and then 5 until December 11. The planetary A index over November 22-25 was 13, 10, 12, and 11. The numbers for the seven days previous to that are listed below.

Unexpected bottom-of-the-cycle propagation still crops up. On November 21, a number of Northeast United States stations reported working Central and South America on 10 meters. W1RM worked Mozambique on 12 meters and Ecuador on 10 meters.

In Propagation Forecast Bulletin ARLP047 on November 16 we mentioned briefly some unusual daylight DX on 75 meters. Note that most of these stations had what many of us would consider monster directional antenna arrays for 75 meters, such as 2-3 element Yagis anywhere from 100-165 feet.

Glenn Rattmann, K6NA of Valley Center, California wrote, "I have been a serious DXer on 75/80m for more than 35 years, and we observed something there on November 10 that hasn't been seen much before, at least among the west coast 75m morning longpath DX crowd. A number of folks here worked a group of ZS stations on 3795 kHz under unusual circumstances."

He continues, "As you know, working into the Middle East, Diego Garcia, and Europe on 75m longpath from the west coast is a fairly routine occurrence during the period November through February. Northeast Africa would also be commonly worked on this grayline path, but for the lack of activity in places like SU, J28, ET3."

He goes on to say, "However, historically there has not been propagation to the southern part of Africa during the west coast sunrise-grayline window, because the position of the grayline is not favorable. Although we in the northern hemisphere are moving into shorter and shorter days (later sunrise too), in the southern latitudes they are moving into more and more daylight. It is possible that a far northwestern station in Seattle, or VE7 land, with the latest sunrise time, has worked a 5R8. Speaking personally, I have never heard of someone working a ZS--even further west than 5R8--on this path. The other significant item is that normally the most easterly and southerly stations in California (that would be San Diego, where I am) have the earliest sunrise, and therefore tend to lose the band earlier than others north and west of us. Typically one hears long path signals fading completely by about 25 minutes after local sunrise on our end."

Glenn continues, "The short story regarding why we don't hear ZS stations on the longpath on 75m is: Sunrise occurs on the west coast 'too soon,' in conjunction with the sunset period occurring 'too late' in South Africa (southern latitudes), even for stations in WA or BC. However, on November 10th such an opening did occur to ZS."

He goes on to say, "I came to the band a bit late that morning, and immediately heard K7ZV and W6KW working a ZS. I listened a while, and they worked several ZS stations in a roundtable. I called in at 1555Z--already one hour and forty minutes after my sunrise!--and logged ZS4TX who gave me a 59 plus report. He was true S-7 on my S-meter. The other California stations received similar reports for the most part. I copied perfectly several other ZS stations but didn't bother to work them; some were using low power and low dipole antennas. All said they had never worked a US west coast station prior to this. I heard ZS4TX say that his sunset would be 'after 1700Z sometime.' So all stations on both ends of the path were in full daylight with significant overlap, although of course much of the path had to be in darkness or something approaching grayline."

He continues, "Note, there were no "regular" longpath signals, i.e. those from Zone 15-16-20-21, audible at all during this opening."

Glenn continues with, "A brief timeline: San Diego sunrise Nov. 10th: 1414Z. K6NA QSO (San Diego): 1555Z. K6NA left the shack, with ZS4TX still copiable: 1625Z. ZS4TX sunset: after 1700Z."

Glenn mentions the antennas used at each location:

K6NA San Diego: 2 el wire Yagi horizontal flat-top at 128 feet oriented SW for longpath.

W6KW Redding: 3 el rotatable Yagi at 165 feet.

K7ZV Oregon: 3 el rotatable Yagi at 130 feet.

W6OG-Oroville, CA and ZS6CCY-400 miles north of Cape Town: 4-square vertical arrays.

ZS4TX: 2 EL rotatable Yagi at 100 feet.

He goes on to say, "ZS6HA may have had a horizontal rotary also. All other ZS who commented said they had dipoles or low dipoles. K6NA, W6KW and K7ZV received 9+ reports from ZS4TX, while W6OG received S7 to S8. A couple of Californians with average-height dipoles successfully made contacts."

Glenn closes by saying, "This little extended opening on 75m longpath was very interesting to experience for the first time. Although I can't explain the mechanism, due to my long-time activity on 75/80m I can state that this was an extremely rare event and thought you might find it of interest."

Peter Dalton, W6KW commented, "The first ZS/West Coast QSO long path took place 3 years ago between ZS6CCY who answered my CQ at approximately 1435 one October, and continued to build in Strength for the next 20 minutes. ZS6CCY worked only one other West Coast station that day, N7UA. We have had several other openings to ZS since then, but NONE the likes of this past one on November 10."

If you would like to make a comment or have a tip for our readers, email the author at, k7ra@arrl.net.

For more information concerning radio propagation, see the ARRL Technical Information Service at, http://www.arrl.org/tis/info/propagation.html. For a detailed
explanation of the numbers used in this bulletin see, http://www.arrl.org/tis/info/k9la-prop.html. An archive of past propagation bulletins is at, http://www.arrl.org/w1aw/prop/. Monthly propagation charts between four USA regions and twelve overseas
locations are at, http://www.arrl.org/qst/propcharts/.

Sunspot numbers for November 15 through 21 were 0, 13, 13, 0, 0, 0 and 0 with a mean of 3.7. 10.7 cm flux was 69.2, 70.6, 69.8, 68.8, 69.5, 69.7, and 69.1 with a mean of 69.5. Estimated planetary A indices were 5, 6, 5, 2, 3, 28 and 13 with a mean of 8.9 Estimated mid-latitude A indices were 5, 5, 5, 1, 2, 10 and 9, with a mean of 5.3.

ARLP048 Propagation de K7RA

This is an off-schedule bulletin before Thanksgiving. Because ARRL headquarters is closed on Friday, the day this bulletin is normally released, and this bulletin was written before the end of our reporting week (which is Thursday through Wednesday), the sunspot, solar flux and geophysical numbers normally at the end of this bulletin will appear in a new propagation bulletin on Monday, November 26. Friday, November 30 will find us back on the regular schedule.

Another sunspot appeared in the past week, but just for two days, November 16-17. The sunspot number was 13 on both days.

Neil Klagge, W0YSE of Layton, Utah wondered why the last Propagation Forecast Bulletin ARLP047 said there was only one sunspot on November 6 when the sunspot number for that day was 11. That is because of the arcane method used to derive sunspot numbers. A sunspot number of 11 means just one sunspot. The number is derived by counting 10 points for each sunspot group, and adding one point for each spot. So 11 is also the minimum non-zero sunspot number. It is either 0, or 11, or something higher, with nothing from 1-10. So in reality, this week when we said there was one sunspot for November 16-17, because the sunspot number was 13, that can only mean that there was one group of sunspots, but three spots were observed, although they were tiny.

We had some geomagnetic activity this week from a coronal wind stream. On November 20 the planetary K index rose to 6 for one period, and the planetary A index for the day was 28. Alaska's College A index was 48. The predicted planetary A index for November 21-27 is 20, 15, 10, 8, 15, 10 and 5. Note that this weekend, November 24-25, is the CQ Worldwide DX CW Contest. Sunspot and solar flux numbers should remain about the same, with an occasional spot appearing, and solar flux hanging around 70 or slightly lower.

Jon Jones, N0JK noted some trans-equatorial 6-meter e-skip propagation from Florida to Brazil on the evening of November 18. From 2358z November 18 through 0002z November 19, KE4WBO worked PY2XB. K4CVL, also in Florida, worked P43A in Aruba on 6 meters at the same time, 0001z. All reported good signals.

If you would like to make a comment or have a tip for our readers, email the author at, k7ra@arrl.net.

For more information concerning radio propagation, see the ARRL Technical Information Service at, http://www.arrl.org/tis/info/propagation.html. For a detailed explanation of the numbers used in this bulletin see, http://www.arrl.org/tis/info/k9la-prop.html. An archive of past propagation bulletins is at http://www.arrl.org/w1aw/prop/. Monthly propagation charts between four USA regions and twelve overseas locations are at, http://www.arrl.org/qst/propcharts/.
NNNN
/EX

ARLP047 Propagation de K7RA

Another quiet week, but strangely, like the previous week there was just a single sunspot appearing for one day, and it was also on a Tuesday. Just like the previous week, the daily sunspot number was 11, and then it went back to 0 when the spot disappeared. No spots expected in the near future.

Geomagnetic indices have been quiet, but may become unsettled in the near term. Geophysical Institute Prague predicts quiet to unsettled conditions for November 16, quiet November 17, quiet to unsettled November 18, quiet November 19, quiet to unsettled November 20, unsettled to active November 21, and unsettled November 22. The NOAA Space Weather Prediction Center sees a planetary A index of 10 for November 16, 5 for November 17-19, 10 for November 20, 15 for November 21, and 10 for November 22.

Many interesting emails this week, and one came from Bob Marston, K6TR of Fremont, California. He mentioned the theory about magnetic polarity of sunspots, and how we expect them to shift as we move into a new cycle. But some time back a reverse polarity spot appeared, and was hailed by some as the first spot of Cycle 24, but it turned out this wasn't the case. Bob says about 3 percent of the spots in any cycle are rogue spots with reverse orientation. What will be significant is when we start to see spots appearing away from the equator.

Bob continued, "The second topic I want to address is the item Carl Luetzelschwab, K9LA, brought up referencing his communication with Mike Keane, K1MK. The 30.4 nm resonance line is the best indicator for gauging the state of ionization of the ionosphere. What I would like to point out is the future of the Solar and Heliospheric Observatory (SOHO). SOHO was originally intended to last a few years when it was launched in 1995 and has lasted four times as long. It has done yeoman's service and done more to increase man's understanding of the Sun than any other space-based solar observatory. But it is getting long in the tooth and in need of replacement."


He goes on to say, "To that end, NASA will launch a replacement satellite observatory called the Solar Dynamics Observatory (SDO). It is currently undergoing final assembly at NASA's Goddard Space Flight Center near Greenbelt, Maryland. Launch date is currently scheduled for no earlier than December 1, 2008 and it is expected to be operational within 90 days of launch. "The assembly team is in the early stages of construction with the first of three instruments delivered last month. That instrument is the Extreme Ultraviolet Variability Experiment (EVE). It is the analogous instrument to the SEM on SOHO. When you check out the specs of the new instrument, it is readily apparent the jump in capability the new instrument offers over the SEM on SOHO."

Solar Dynamics Observatory
He continues, "Unlike SOHO, SDO will be placed into a geosynchronous orbit around the Earth. That is to provide better communications to handle the higher data rate coming from the new satellite. Images that are updated every five minutes on SOHO will be updated once a second on SDO. SOHO orbits the Sun at a Lagrange point, one million miles from Earth. This provides uninterrupted observation of the Sun. SDO will have two 90 day periods per year where its observations will be interrupted for a maximum of 72 minutes while it passes behind the Earth."
Bob ends by saying, "You might want to remind your readers, especially the younger ones, that while conditions may be challenging right now they will get better. And the set of new tools coming online in the next year and a half will provide us with the information to exploit F layer ionospheric propagation like never before, regardless of what the sunspot count at the peak of Cycle 24."

SDO Home Page: http://sdo.gsfc.nasa.gov/
SDO Mission Page: http://sdo.gsfc.nasa.gov/mission/about.php
SDO Instrument Page: http://sdo.gsfc.nasa.gov/mission/instruments.php
SDO EVE Overview Page: http://lasp.colorado.edu/eve/instrument/eve_instrument.htm

Thanks, Bob for the great information.

This week several people wrote in about an article from NASA about ion plumes, titled "Strange Space Weather Over Africa." You can read it at http://tinyurl.com/3yyok8.

The article mentions a site at, http://www.swpc.noaa.gov/ustec/ in which users can look at changing electron content in the ionosphere over North America. Note that you can look at animations of the shifting patterns of electron content over 24 hours.

Jose Nunes, CT1BOH of Lisbon, Portugal sent in a link to an article about the cycle minimum at, http://sohowww.nascom.nasa.gov/pickoftheweek/old/05oct2007.

Next week we hope to have more details on some unusual long path propagation on 80 meters from the West Coast to South Africa, while both ends of the path were in daylight. Don't forget ARRL Phone Sweepstakes this weekend. Conditions should be fine for this domestic contest.

If you would like to make a comment or have a tip for our readers, email the author at, k7ra@arrl.net.

For more information concerning radio propagation, see the ARRL Technical Information Service at, http://www.arrl.org/tis/info/propagation.html. For a detailed explanation of the numbers used in this bulletin see, http://www.arrl.org/tis/info/k9la-prop.html. An archive of past propagation bulletins is at, http://www.arrl.org/w1aw/prop/. Monthly propagation charts between four USA regions and twelve overseas locations are at, http://www.arrl.org/qst/propcharts/.

Sunspot numbers for November 8 through 14 were 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 11 and 0 with a mean of 1.6. 10.7 cm flux was 69.7, 69.5, 69.8, 69, 69.7, 69.9, and 70.4 with a mean of 69.7. Estimated planetary A indices were 3, 2, 3, 1, 2, 8 and 9 with a mean of 4 Estimated mid-latitude A indices were 3, 2, 2, 1, 2, 7 and 9, with a mean of 3.7.

ARLP011 Propagation de K7RA

QST de W1AW
Propagation Forecast Bulletin 11 ARLP011
From Tad Cook, K7RA Seattle, WA March 9, 2007

SB PROP ARL ARLP011
ARLP011 Propagation de K7RA

On March 1 sunspot 944 was pointed straight at us. It was a small sunspot, followed a few days later by another small spot, 945. Sunspot 945 is visible in photos from March 5, just behind 944, but both spots seemed to disappear a day or two later, before they would have rotated off the visible solar disk. Now the Sun is blank, and the sunspot number is zero.

The minimum non-zero sunspot number is 11, and lately sunspot numbers move from 0 to 11 to 23 or 24, and back to 11. No solar activity is expected for the next few days, so we will probably see at least several days with a zero sunspot number. Geomagnetic conditions are expected to remain quiet, at least until Monday or Tuesday, March 12-13. The USAF predicts a Planetary A index for March 9-15 of 5, 5, 7, 15, 20, 15 and 10. Geophysical Institute Prague predicts quiet conditions for March 9-10, quiet to unsettled March 11, active geomagnetic conditions for March 12, unsettled to active March 13, unsettled March 14 and quiet to unsettled March 15. A recurring solar wind stream is predicted for Monday, March 12, and should produce the expected geomagnetic instability.

New predictions for the solar minimum are coming frequently of late. The monthly smoothed sunspot number forecast for the rest of 2007 from the NOAA Space Environment Center in the weekly Preliminary Report and Forecast has been adjusted again, the third time since the first of the year. The revised tables are on page 9 of issue 1635, and page 10 of issues 1640 and 1644 at, http://www.sec.noaa.gov/weekly/index.html (the table in 1640 is mislabeled at the bottom of the page as 03 January when it is really 06 February). Currently they predict a solar minimum for right now, with a smoothed sunspot number of 6 for March and April 2007, then 7, 8, 10, 11, 13, 16, 18 and 21 for the remaining eight months of this year.

As mentioned in past bulletins, these are smoothed sunspot numbers, averaged over a year. So the prediction of 6 for this month means that if the prediction is accurate, at the end of September 2007 you could take half the average of daily sunspot numbers for that month, add it to half the average of daily sunspot numbers for September 2006, add the total to the monthly averages for each month in between, divide by 12, and get 6 as the result. Currently we're seeing higher values, with an average daily sunspot number of 19 for last week, 19.6 the week before, 14.6 for the week prior to that, 6.3 for the previous week, and 28.7 for the week prior to that, which was February 1-7.

You can see an explanation of the method for determining the 12 month smoothed sunspot number at, http://www.ngdc.noaa.gov/stp/IONO/sunspot.html.

Jim Headrick, W3CP of Stanfield, Oregon sent in a different prediction from the Australian government. It has the solar minimum centered on September 2007, and you can see it at, http://tinyurl.com/2ymk92. Note that the NOAA version mentioned previously ends in December 2007, but the one Jim sent goes through 2008 and 2009 as well. By the way, I don't know how long Jim has been a ham, but he was born early in sunspot cycle 15, and I'm sure he hopes to see the new cycle 24 all the way through. See a page of all the 20th century sunspot cycles at, http://wm7d.net/hamradio/solar/historical.shtml.

We heard from another ham enjoying low power operations at the bottom of the cycle. Bill Raiford, NI4Y of Fredericksburg, Virginia says he operates 10 watts on 20 meters from his car. Bill says, "Last week I worked VK2KM and this week I worked VK2GWK from my 10 watt mobile station. No, VK isn't rare DX, but just the thought of 10 watts propagating from my vehicle in VA to VK land is quite amazing. I am at 194 countries from my mobile."

Dave Green, VE5TLY of Ottawa, Ontario sent an interesting link from the BBC concerning the new STEREO (Solar Terrestrial Relations Observatory) satellites which will soon be observing coronal mass ejections traveling through space in 3D. Read the article at, http://news.bbc.co.uk/2/hi/science/nature/6411349.stm.

If you would like to make a comment or have a tip for our readers, email the author at, k7ra@arrl.net.

For more information concerning radio propagation, see the ARRL Technical Information Service at, http://www.arrl.org/tis/info/propagation.html. For a detailed
explanation of the numbers used in this bulletin see, http://www.arrl.org/tis/info/k9la-prop.html. An archive of past propagation bulletins is at, http://www.arrl.org/w1aw/prop/.
Monthly propagation charts between four USA regions and twelve overseas locations are at, http://www.arrl.org/qst/propcharts/.

Sunspot numbers for March 1 through 7 were 11, 23, 11, 24, 27, 26 and 11 with a mean of 19. 10.7 cm flux was 74.8, 75.5, 73.3, 72.5, 71.9, 71.9, and 72.9, with a mean of 73.3. Estimated planetary A indices were 11, 5, 2, 3, 8, 18 and 14 with a mean of 8.7. Estimated mid-latitude A indices were 7, 4, 0, 4, 6, 14 and 12, with a mean of 6.7.

No Sunspots Feb 11-16, 2007

ARRL Propagation Forecast Bulletin 9 de K7RA

Sunspot numbers picked up a bit this week from 0 daily sunspot numbers for February 11-15. Currently the sunspot number is 25 for February 22, with only a lone visible spot, small sunspot 942, looking straight at us from the center of the visible solar disk.

Average daily sunspot numbers for our most recent reporting week (February 15-21) rose over eight points from the previous week to 14.6. Average daily solar flux was nearly unchanged, from 75 to 74.8.

Look for sunspot numbers and solar flux to rise over the next few days. Predicted solar flux for February 23-26 is 78, 80, 85 and 85. The predicted Planetary A index over the same period is 5, 5, 25 and 15. The Australian Space Forecast Centre predicts possible minor geomagnetic storms on Sunday, February 25. Geophysical Institute Prague predicts quiet to unsettled conditions for today, February 23, quiet conditions on February 24, active conditions February 25-26, unsettled to active on February 27, and unsettled for February 28.

Billy Michaud, AA1TT in Claremont New Hampshire operates a 5 watt 10-meter beacon on 28.269 MHz in grid square FN33uj. On February 14 Billy received a report from Ned Conklin, KH7JJ in Honolulu, that Billy's beacon was received with good signals at 2100z. Ned operates exclusively on 10-meters using a mobile whip clamped to the railing of his apartment's lanai railing. Ned says this is the first 10-meter beacon from the Eastern USA that he's heard in 2 years.

Billy reports that with the sunspot cycle at the bottom, he doesn't get many reception reports for his beacon lately, except for some sporadic E propagation. Billy has a web page devoted to his beacon at, http://home.comcast.net/~aa1tt/.

Mike Best, WD4DUG sent an article from Toronto's Globe and Mail about five satellites recently launched to study aurora. View it at, http://snipurl.com/1ao6g. David Moore sent an interesting article from the European Space Agency about the Ulysses spacecraft observing the sun. You can read about it at, http://www.esa.int/esaSC/SEMB3KBE8YE_index_0.html.

If you would like to make a comment or have a tip for our readers, email the author at, k7ra@arrl.net.

For more information concerning radio propagation, see the ARRL Technical Information Service at, http://www.arrl.org/tis/info/propagation.html. For a detailed
explanation of the numbers used in this bulletin see, http://www.arrl.org/tis/info/k9la-prop.html. An archive of past propagation bulletins is at, http://www.arrl.org/w1aw/prop/. Monthly propagation charts between four USA regions and twelve overseas locations are at, http://www.arrl.org/qst/propcharts/.

Sunspot numbers for February 15 through 21 were 0, 12, 11, 12, 26, 27 and 14 with a mean of 14.6. 10.7 cm flux was 73.6, 74.7, 75.3, 75.8, 74.9, 74.7, and 74.8, with a mean of 74.8. Estimated planetary A indices were 11, 6, 8, 5, 3, 2 and 1 with a mean of 5.1. Estimated mid-latitude A indices were 15, 6, 7, 3, 2, 1 and 1, with a mean of
5.