X-Flare - Earth Facing

UPDATE, 3:30 p.m.: NOAA’s Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC) just posted the following:

The R3 (Strong) Radio Blackout today at 12:49 EDT (1649 UTC) was accompanied by an earth-directed CME. Hampered by limited observations of the event, SWPC forecasters are now anticipating the passage of the [coronal mass ejection] around 1:00 a.m. EDT, Saturday, July 14. G1 (minor) Geomagnetic Storm activity is expected to then ensue through the rest of the day.

In short, NOAA is predicting minor effects from this space weather event - no major impacts on the power grid or satellites anticipated - although we remind you forecasting space weather is difficult and surprises are possible. Sky watchers in northern U.S. (and high latitudes) may have an opportunity to see aurora late Friday night into early Saturday morning.

Original story below . . .

X-FLARE! Big sunspot AR1520 unleashed an X1.4-class solar flare on July 12th at 1653 UT. Because the sunspot was directly facing Earth at the time of the blast, this is a geoeffective event. Stay tuned for updates about possible CMEs and radio blackouts.
NASA's Solar Dynamics Observatory recorded a flash of extreme ultraviolet radiation from the blast site.



The UV and X-ray pulse from the flare will have partially ionized Earth's upper atmosphere on the dayside of our planet, disturbing the normal propagation of radio signals. Watch the Realtime Space Weather Gallery for possible reports of sudden ionospheric disturbances and other effects.

Complex Eruption on the Sun

Space Weather News for August 1, 2010
http://spaceweather.com

GLOBAL ERUPTION: During the early hours of August 1st, NASA's Solar Dynamics Observatory recorded a complex global disturbance on the Earth-facing side of the sun. Most of the sun's northern hemisphere was involved in the event, which included a long-duration C3-class solar flare, a "solar tsunami," and a massive filament eruption. As a result of these blasts, a coronal mass ejection (CME) is heading toward Earth. High-latitude geomagnetic storms and auroras are possible when the cloud arrives a few days hence.

On August 1st around 0855 UT, Earth orbiting satellites detected a C3-class solar flare. The origin of the blast was sunspot 1092. At about the same time, an enormous magnetic filament stretching across the sun's northern hemisphere erupted. NASA's Solar Dynamics Observatory recorded the action.



The timing of these events suggest they are connected, and a review of SDO movies strengthens that conclusion. Despite the ~400,000 km distance between them, the sunspot and filament seem to erupt together; they are probably connected by long-range magnetic fields.

In short, we have just witnessed a complex global eruption involving almost the entire Earth-facing side of the sun.

A coronal mass ejection (CME) produced by the event is heading directly for Earth. High-latitude sky watchers should be alert for auroras when it arrives on or about August 3rd. See forecast below.

3-day Solar-Geophysical Forecast issued Aug 01 22:00 UTC
Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be very low. However, there is a chance for an isolated C-class flare from Region 1092.

Geophysical Activity Forecast: Geomagnetic field activity is expected to be at quiet levels during most of day 1 (02 August). An increase to unsettled to active levels is expected late on day 1 due to the arrival of the full-halo CME observed on 01 August. Activity is expected to increase to unsettled to active levels with a chance for minor storm levels on day 2 (03 August) as CME effects persist. Activity is expected to decrease to quiet to unsettled levels with a chance for active levels on day 3 (04 August) as CME effects subside.

10.7-cm flux - highest yet in current Sunspot Cycle 24

It just keeps getting better! During the CQ WW Contest weekend, the solar flux climbed into the upper 70's. But, as this week unfolds, the flux climbs, with a current flux of 81! This is the highest recording yet since the first observed "new cycle sunspot" in January 2008, the "official" visual start of Sunspot Cycle 24. (We'll see where the statistical averaged solar minimum actually occurs).

Speaking of... the monthly observed smoothed count of zero, recorded in August, does not make that the statistical lowest point in the moving average, because the months prior, and the months since, have higher numbers. And, these numbers, except for August, are all increasing, each month. The current sunspot activity is further confirmation that this cycle is, albeit slow, alive and increasing in activity.

DX was great over the weekend. Even 15 meters was hot with activity. This week is one to enjoy - the CME and Flare activity continues to be low to at most moderate, leaving the geomagnetic field mostly stable. This results in fairly normal (non-depressed) ionospheric conditions.

Please feel free to post your observations of conditions on HF, this week. It would be very enlightening to hear how conditions really are, in your location. Please post your grid square / location, along with the report of working conditions and results of your activity.

This is an exciting start to the Autumn DX season!

--
73 de NW7US, Tomas David Hood - Bitterroot Valley of Montana

Singer/Songwriter/Guitarist : http://tomasdavidhood.com

Contributing editor: CQ Magazine, CQ VHF, Popular Communications, Monitoring Times magazine

Scientists Predict Solar Cycle 24 to Peak in 2013

Courtesy of the The ARRL Letter Vol. 28, No. 19 May 15, 2009

At the annual Space Weather Workshop held in Boulder, Colorado last month <http://www.swpc.noaa.gov/sww/index.html>, an international panel of experts led by NOAA's Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC) predicted that Solar Cycle 24 will peak in May 2013 with 90 sunspots per day on average. If the prediction proves true, Solar Cycle 24 will be the weakest cycle since Solar Cycle 16, which peaked with 78 daily sunspots in 1928, and ninth weakest since the 1750s, when numbered cycles began.

The panel predicted that the lowest sunspot number between cycles -- the solar minimum -- occurred in December 2008, marking the end of Solar Cycle 23 and the start of Solar Cycle 24. If December's prediction holds up <http://www.arrl.org/news/stories/2008/01/07/100/>, at 12 years and seven months Solar Cycle 23 will be the longest since 1823 and the third longest since 1755. Solar cycles span 11 years on average, from minimum to minimum.

An unusually long, deep lull in sunspots led the panel to revise its 2007 prediction that the next cycle of solar storms would start in March 2008 and peak in late 2011 or mid-2012. The persistence of a quiet sun also led the panel to a consensus that Solar Cycle 24 will be what they called "moderately weak."

Although the peak is still four years away, a new active period of Earth-threatening solar storms will be the weakest since 1928. Despite the prediction, the scientists said that Earth is still vulnerable to a severe solar storm. Solar storms are eruptions of energy and matter that escape from the Sun and may head toward Earth, where even a weak storm can damage satellites and power grids, disrupting communications, the electric power supply and GPS. A single strong blast of "solar wind" can threaten national security, transportation, financial services and otheressential functions.

The most common measure of a solar cycle's intensity is the number of sunspots -- Earth-sized blotches on the sun marking areas of heightened magnetic activity. The more sunspots there are, the more likely it is that solar storms will occur, but a major storm can occur at any time.
"As with hurricanes, whether a cycle is active or weak refers to the number of storms, but everyone needs to remember it only takes one powerful storm to cause huge problems," said NOAA scientist Doug Biesecker, who chaired the panel. "The strongest solar storm on record occurred in 1859 during another below-average cycle." The 1859 storm shorted out telegraph wires, causing fires in North America and Europe and sent readings of Earth's magnetic field soaring. It also producednorthern lights so bright that people read newspapers by their light, he said.

Biesecker cited a recent report by the National Academy of Sciences that found if a storm that severe occurred today, it could cause $1-2 trillion in damages the first year and require four to 10 years for recovery, compared to the $80-125 billion of damage that resulted from Hurricane Katrina<http://www.nap.edu/nap-cgi/report.cgi?record_id=12507&type=pdfxsum>.

The Space Weather Prediction Center is part of the National Weather Service and is one of the nine National Centers for Environmental Prediction. It is the nation's official source of space weather alerts, watches and warnings. SWPC provides real-time monitoring and forecasting of solar and geophysical events that impact satellites, power grids, communications, navigation and many other technological systems.