SB PROP @ ARL $ARLP038
ARLP038 Propagation de K7RA
ZCZC AP38
QST de
W1AW
Propagation Forecast Bulletin 38 ARLP038
From Tad Cook,
K7RA
Seattle, WA September 20, 2019
To all radio amateurs
SB PROP
ARL ARLP038
ARLP038 Propagation de K7RA
No sunspots this week, and as
of Wednesday we've seen 15 spotless
days in a row. This is the solar minimum.
The current Solar Cycle 24
is expected to end by the end of this calendar
year.
Average daily solar flux declined from 69.4 to 68.1. Average
daily
planetary A index declined slightly from 8.9 to 8.3, but
average
daily mid-latitude A index rose from 7.7 to 8.
Predicted solar
flux is 68 on September 20-26, 69 on September 27
through October 6, 70 on
October 7, 68 on October 8-19, 69 on
October 20 through November 2 and 70 on
October 3.
Predicted planetary A index is 5 on September 20-21, 8 on
September
22-23, 5 on September 24-25, then 10, 35, 45, 20 and 10 on
September
26-30, then 8, 10 and 8 on October 1-3, then 5, 5 and 12 on
October
4-6, 5 on October 7-9, then 8, 5 and 8 on October 10-12, then 5,
8
and 10 on October 13-15, 5 on October 16-19, then 8, 5 and 5 on
October
20-22, then 8, 25, 30, and 18 on October 23-26, then 8, 5
and 8 on October
27-29, 5 on October 30 through November 1, 12 on
November 2 and 5 on November
3.
Geomagnetic activity forecast for the period September 20
to
October 14, 2019 from F.K. Janda, OK1HH.
"Geomagnetic field will
be
Quiet on: September 20 (-21,) October 7-8.
Quiet to unsettled on:
September 22, (24,) October 4-6, 9-10.
Quiet to active on: September 23, 25,
30, October 1-3, 11.
Unsettled to active on: September (26), October
(12-14).
Active to disturbed: September (27-29).
"Solar wind will
intensify on: September (24-27,) 28-30. October 1
(-4, 7-9,) 11
(-14)
"- Parenthesis means lower probability of activity
enhancement.
- The predictability of changes remains lower."
Another
explanation for heliophysics. Thanks to W4NI:
https://bit.ly/2kVU7s5
Jon Jones, N0JK
in Kansas sent this:
"6 Meter Es made an appearance in the ARRL September
VHF Contest
Saturday evening (September 15 UTC). Starting around 0030z,
stations
in Arizona, California, Nevada and Utah appeared and worked
stations
in the Midwest states. I even saw a few double hop
sporadic-E
contacts between Michigan to Nevada, and California to Alabama.
I
made about a dozen FT8 6 meter contacts running 10 watts and a 2
element
Yagi in the single operator portable category in the
opening. My best DX was
NA6L (DM03) in southern California.
"Sporadic-E propagation is rare in
September, and it was a special
treat to have an Es opening during the VHF
Contest."
Another 6 meter report, from KD7WPJ in Mountain House,
California,
which is between Tracy and Livermore:
"During ARRL
September VHF Contest I made 50 MHz FT8 contact with
VE7DAY on September 16
at 0242 UTC. I used only 10 w with a simple
dipole antenna.
"The
distance is approximately 844 miles.
"It's kind of late for Es season,
and the propagation mechanism is
undetermined."
Ken, N4SO in Alabama
sent this regarding signals copied on September
13:
http://www.astrosurf.com/luxorion/qsl-propa5.htm
"This
web site on Grey line propagation explains why on many days on
18.100 MHZ,
FT8 mode, Japan, Australia or Fiji are decoded. This
example is starting at
2236 UTC and lasts for an hour or more. This
shows Japan, JQ1TIV easily
worked at 2330 UTC. (Power levels about
15 watts to a Half Square
antenna.)
"Late afternoon hours at around 5 PM/2200 UTC start time,
usually 2
hours before local Sunset.
"223630 -17 0.2 938 CQ VK2IZ
QG60 Australia
223600 -7 0.1 259 CQ 3D2AG RH91
Fiji
233000 -11 0.1 2439 N4SO JQ1TIV RR73 Japan
233015 Tx 2432
JQ1TIV N4SO 73
233415 8 0.1 845 HK0RMR EK92 San Andres
Providencia"
KC9WIR cc'd a message he sent to VK3CRG on September
14:
"At 0810 UTC it was 3:10 AM in Chicago (CDT).
"I was sleeping
but my radio was on the WSPR frequency on 40 meters,
my PC was decoding WSPR
signals. This morning I looked what I
harvested during the night and there
was your signal clocked at 0812
UTC. Nice, given that you only used 5 watts!
You were -20 dB in
Chicago.
"Conditions are poor, maximum distance of
most other logged stations
were between 400 and 2000 miles during nighttime.
It's puzzling how
your QRP signal made it to here."
If you would like
to make a comment or have a tip for our readers,
email the author at, k7ra@arrl.net.
For more information
concerning radio propagation, see the ARRL
Technical Information Service web
page at,
http://arrl.org/propagation-of-rf-signals.
For an explanation of
numbers used in this bulletin, see
http://arrl.org/the-sun-the-earth-the-ionosphere.
An
archive of past propagation bulletins is at
http://arrl.org/w1aw-bulletins-archive-propagation.
More good
information and tutorials on propagation are at http://k9la.us/.
Monthly propagation charts
between four USA regions and twelve
overseas locations are at http://arrl.org/propagation.
Instructions
for starting or ending email distribution of ARRL
bulletins are at http://arrl.org/bulletins.
Sunspot
numbers for September 12 through 18, 2019 were 0, 0, 0, 0,
0, 0, and 0, with
a mean of 0. 10.7 cm flux was 69.4, 68.3, 68.6,
67.7, 68.7, 67.5, and 66.3,
with a mean of 68.1. Estimated planetary
A indices were 7, 8, 6, 8, 11, 9,
and 9, with a mean of 8.3. Middle
latitude A index was 7, 8, 7, 8, 10, 8, and
8, with a mean of 8.
NNNN
/EX
