SB PROP @ ARL $ARLP033
ARLP033 Propagation de K7RA
ZCZC AP33
QST de
W1AW
Propagation Forecast Bulletin 33 ARLP033
From Tad Cook,
K7RA
Seattle, WA August 16, 2019
To all radio amateurs
SB PROP
ARL ARLP033
ARLP033 Propagation de K7RA
No sunspots were visible over
the recent reporting week, Thursday
through Wednesday, August 8 through
14.
According to Spaceweather.com, 67% of the days so far in 2019
have
been spotless, and for all of 2018 it was 61%. In the previous
solar
minimum in 2008 and 2009 the spotless days ran 73% and
71%,
respectively.
Solar flux has been minimal and unremarkable, with
average daily
solar flux changing only to 67.4 from 67.2 last
week.
Predicted solar flux for the next 45 days is likewise
unremarkable,
at 67 from August 15 til September 29.
Predicted
planetary A index is 8 on August 16, 5 on August 17, 6 on
August 18, 8 on
August 19 and 20, 5 on August 21 to 25, 8 on August
26 to 28, 5 on August 29
to 31, then 38 and 14 on September 1 and 2,
5 on September 3 to 5, 8 on
September 6 to 8, 5 on September 9 to
11, 8 on September 12, 5 on September
13 to 21, 8 on September 22 to
24, 5 on September 25 to 27, and in a
recurrence of geomagnetic
activity reported in last week's bulletin and also
predicted for
September 1, 38 on September 28 and 14 on September
29.
On Tuesday, September 10, 2019 I will be conducting an
informal
presentation on space weather, propagation and my involvement
in
amateur radio since being licensed at the end of cycle 19 at age 12,
at
the monthly meeting in Seattle of the Western Washington DX Club.
See https://www.wwdxc.org/ for
details.
Last weekend was the 65th annual Pacific Northwest DX
Convention,
and among the presentations was an excellent talk by Space
Weather
Woman Dr. Tamitha Skov, WX6SWW. If you ever get a chance to see
her
give a talk, don't miss it. Her presentation was excellent.
Jim
Brown, W5ZIT of Farmersville, Texas (or Tucson, AZ) wrote on
August
15:
"I had just finished an Olivia QSO with Fergus ZL2VF via grey
line
(7 dB s/n peak) as we usually do around 0300Z when I noticed a
very
strong PSK31 signal on 20M which I assumed was a nearby
local.
When I checked I found that it was Suke JM7OLW at 30 dB plus
s/n
ratio. Suke runs 200 Watts to a 5el up about 100 ft, but still that
is
a very strong signal to propagate into Tucson, Arizona. Suke gave
me a very
good 20 dB plus s/n report.
This morning I tuned across a dead 20M band
and again saw a 30 dB
plus s/n signal which I again assumed was a local.
Instead it was
W4PKU, Fred in VA. With signals barely copyable on 20M PSK in
the
last few days, I was really surprised to see this kind of signal.
Fred
gave me a 30 dB plus s/n report also, from my 30 Watts into an
80M OCF
antenna. Turns out he had also worked Suke in the last few
days
also.
The bands can still surprise you even at the low end of the
cycle."
Be sure to check out the W5ZIT page on QRZ.com.
Ken
Brown, N4SO wrote on August 15:
18.1 MHZ FT8 mode
I added
Reunion Island and Fiji to the list as worked "new"
countries on FT8. I have
also added a note on both Pacific and
Europe being decoded at 2210
UTC.
On several days, 18.1 MHZ was monitored on the digital mode FT8,
and
some contacts were made with 10 watts and a half square
antenna.
The band stays open until about 0300 to 0400 UTC. The numbers
on the
left are UTC. It is possible to receive weak Pacific Ocean
stations
or W8-(K8FAM), until the band closes completely.
033915 -17
-0.5 1083 ~ CQ E51BQ BG08 S. Cook Is.
033830 6 0.1 1198 ~ CQ K9OM
EN65 USA
The band opens at approximately 1200 UTC to all of the
Northeast
USA, Canada, and also to Europe.
130800 -12 0.5 306 ~ CQ
TO5M GN16 Reunion Is.
131130 -9 0.5 305 ~ N4SO TO5M 73
(Reunion Island new country)
120430 -14 -0.0 418 ~ CQ EA6VQ JM19
Balearic Is.
122200 -14 0.1 902 ~ CQ IZ8VYU JN71 Italy
123130
-11 0.1 902 ~ N4SO IZ8VYU 73
124830 -17 0.6 1930 ~ CQ 9K2NO LL39
Kuwait
125215 -3 0.3 1692 ~ CQ HA7TM JN97 Hungary
131415 -10
0.2 1713 ~ CQ OK2WMC JN99 Czech Rep.
120730 -6 0.0 1452 ~ CQ
W9XB EN52 USA
134700 4 0.1 883 ~ CQ N4TZ EN70 USA
122215 -17 0.3 1333 ~ CQ HA7TM JN97 Hungary
124745 -19 0.2
831 ~ CQ F8DZU JN15 France
131915 -15 0.4 2214 ~ CQ VE3MGY EN92
Canada
141115 -18 0.1 709 ~ CQ PA9CC JO32 Netherlands
During daylight hours, the 18 MHZ band continues to remain open
to
North America, Europe and also to the Caribbean and South
America.
Africa? Around 1800 UTC
184700 0 0.4 2513 ~ 9G2HO KA1J
FN31 Ghana
Europe and Pacific Ocean? The point of this is to show
that
propagation to both Cyprus and Fiji is possible, with the
signals
from Europe and Russia very weak and not workable. Fiji was
worked
though.
221000 -16 -0.1 949 ~ CQ 5B4AMX KM65 Cyprus
221300 -13 0.2 2098 ~ CQ 3D2AG RH91 Fiji (new country)
221700
-17 0.4 2095 ~ N4SO 3D2AG -11
Before sundown (7:36 local time) there
is a possibility of Japan and
Far East stations, or to New Zealand and also
Australia. Good times
are 2200 to 0200 UTC. Japan is favorable after 2200
UTC. Most of
these were easily worked:
222300 -14 0.1 1825 ~ N4SO
JF8QNF -19
222300 -12 -0.4 654 ~ N4SO JH0INP PM96
222900 -12 0.1 1908
~ N4SO JH7CVM 73
222930 -13 0.1 2043 ~ N4SO JH2FXK RR73
224230 -13
0.4 474 ~ N4SO JA1XEC RR73
224900 -7 0.1 787 ~ N4SO JA1NCZ RR73
020000 -16 -0.1 2155 ~ N4SO VK7WX R-10
020015 Tx 2375 ~
VK7WX N4SO RR73
020030 -17 -0.1 2156 ~ N4SO VK7WX 73
222415 -17 0.1 1859 ~ CQ DX JA7QVI QM08 Japan
000700 -13 -0.1 485 ~
CQ JA8KSF QN03 Japan
004300 -16 0.1 1650 ~ CQ VK4PY QG62
Australia
This ZL station was worked with 10 watts, and the numbers (-1)
show
good signals propagated to New Zealand.
004730 -3 0.1 1536 ~ CQ
ZL2IFB RF80 New Zealand
004830 -1 0.2 1536 ~ N4SO ZL2IFB R-02
During the evening hours the band is open to the West coast
and
British Columbia, Canada, and the Pacific such as FK8 New
Caledonia.
The band usually closes with W6, W7, W0 or W9 in the USA, or
a
Pacific Ocean station (South Cook Island E51BQ)."
If you would like
to make a comment or have a tip for our readers,
email the author at, k7ra@arrl.net.
For more information
concerning radio propagation, see the ARRL
Technical Information Service
at
http://arrl.org/propagation-of-rf-signals.
For an explanation of
numbers used in this bulletin, see
http://arrl.org/the-sun-the-earth-the-ionosphere.
An
archive of past propagation bulletins is at
http://arrl.org/w1aw-bulletins-archive-propagation.
More good
information and tutorials on propagation are at http://k9la.us/.
Monthly propagation charts
between four USA regions and twelve
overseas locations are at http://arrl.org/propagation.
Instructions
for starting or ending email distribution of ARRL
bulletins are at http://arrl.org/bulletins.
Sunspot
numbers for August 8 through 14, 2019 were 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0,
and 0, with a
mean of 0. 10.7 cm flux was 68.6, 67.2, 67.2, 67.6,
67.2, 66.8, and 67.4,
with a mean of 67.4. Estimated planetary A
indices were 7, 6, 8, 6, 5, 7, and
5 with a mean of 6.3. Middle
latitude A index was 6, 7, 8, 7, 7, 8, and 5,
with a mean of 6.9.
NNNN
/EX
