Saturday, January 05, 2008

Solar and Geophysical Activity SDF 004

Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity SDF Number 004 issued at 2200Z on 04 Jan 2008.

IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 03/2100Z to 04/2100Z: Solar activity was very low. Region 980 (S06E29)produced one low level B-class flare during the past 24 hours. The region continued to decay and is now classified as a simple Axx sunspot group. New Region 981 (N30E22) is classified as a Cso beta
sunspot group. This region is likely a new solar cycle sunspot group. A very faint backsided CME was observed on LASCO C2 imagery at 4/1454Z.

IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be very low. There remains a slight chance for an isolated C-class event.

IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 03/2100Z to 04/2100Z: The geomagnetic field was quiet.

IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected to be quiet to unsettled, with isolated active periods for the forecast period (5-7 January). Isolated minor storm periods are possible at high latitudes on 7 January.

III. Event Probabilities 05 Jan-07 Jan
Class M 01/01/01
Class X 01/01/01
Proton 01/01/01
PCAF green

IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed 04 Jan 079
Predicted 05 Jan-07 Jan 080/080/080
90 Day Mean 04 Jan 073

V. Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 03 Jan 001/001
Estimated Afr/Ap 04 Jan 001/001
Predicted Afr/Ap 05 Jan-07 Jan 008/008-008/010-010/015

VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 05 Jan-07 Jan
A. Middle Latitudes
Active 20/20/25
Minor storm 10/10/15
Major-severe storm 01/01/05

B. High Latitudes
Active 25/25/30
Minor storm 10/15/20
Major-severe storm 01/05/10