Oh No, Say It Isn't So!

Scientists predict rare 'hibernation' of sunspots

WASHINGTON (AFP) – For years, scientists have been predicting the Sun would by around 2012 move into solar maximum, a period of intense flares and sunspot activity, but lately a curious calm has suggested quite the opposite.

According to three studies released in the United States on Tuesday, experts believe the familiar sunspot cycle may be shutting down and heading toward a pattern of inactivity unseen since the 17th century.

The signs include a missing jet stream, fading spots, and slower activity near the poles, said experts from the National Solar Observatory and Air Force Research Laboratory.

"This is highly unusual and unexpected," said Frank Hill, associate director of the NSO's Solar Synoptic Network, as the findings of the three studies were presented at the annual meeting of the American Astronomical Society's Solar Physics Division in Las Cruces, New Mexico.

"But the fact that three completely different views of the Sun point in the same direction is a powerful indicator that the sunspot cycle may be going into hibernation."

Solar activity tends to rise and fall every 11 years or so. The solar maximum and solar minimum each mark about half the interval of the magnetic pole reversal on the Sun, which happens every 22 years.

Hill said the current cycle, number 24, "may be the last normal one for some time and the next one, cycle 25, may not happen for some time.

"This is important because the solar cycle causes space weather which affects modern technology and may contribute to climate change," he told reporters.

Experts are now probing whether this period of inactivity could be a second Maunder Minimum, which was a 70-year period when hardly any sunspots were observed between 1645-1715, a period known as the "Little Ice Age."

"If we are right, this could be the last solar maximum we'll see for a few decades. That would affect everything from space exploration to Earth's climate," said Hill.

Solar flares and eruptions can send highly charged particles hurtling toward Earth and interfere with satellite communications, GPS systems and even airline controls.

Geomagnetic forces have been known to occasionally garble the world's modern gadgetry, and warnings were issued as recently as last week when a moderate solar flare sent a coronal mass ejection in the Earth's direction.

The temperature change associated with any reduction in sunspot activity would likely be minimal and may not be enough to offset the impact of greenhouse gases on global warming, according to scientists who have published recent papers on the topic.

"Recent solar 11-year cycles are associated empirically with changes in global surface temperature of 0.1 Celsius," said Judith Lean, a solar physicist with the US Naval Research Laboratory.

If the cycle were to stop or slow down, the small fluctuation in temperature would do the same, eliminating the slightly cooler effect of a solar minimum compared to the warmer solar maximum. The phenomenon was witnessed during the descending phase of the last solar cycle.

This "cancelled part of the greenhouse gas warming of the period 2000-2008, causing the net global surface temperature to remain approximately flat -- and leading to the big debate of why the Earth hadn't (been) warming in the past decade," Lean, who was not involved in the three studies presented, said in an email to AFP.

A study in the March 2010 issue of Geophysical Research Letters explored what effect an extended solar minimum might have, and found no more than a 0.3 Celsius dip by 2100 compared to normal solar fluctuations.

"A new Maunder-type solar activity minimum cannot offset the global warming caused by human greenhouse gas emissions," wrote authors Georg Feulner and Stefan Rahmstorf, noting that forecasts by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change have found a range of 3.7 Celsius to 4.5 Celsius rise by this century's end compared to the latter half of the 20th century.

"Moreover, any offset of global warming due to a grand minimum of solar activity would be merely a temporary effect, since the distinct solar minima during the last millennium typically lasted for only several decades or a century at most."

Space weather team readies for upcoming solar max

Staff Sgt. Matthew Money monitors the near earth space environment at the 2nd Weather Squadron's space weather operations center located inside the Air Force Weather Agency at Offutt Air Force Base, Neb. The sun's last solar maximum occurred in 2000 and therefore it is expected to awaken from its current solar minimum and get more and more active this year. Sergeant Money is a forecaster with the 2nd WS space weather flight. (U.S. Air Force photo/Josh Plueger)

by Ryan Hansen, 55th Wing Public Affairs

OFFUTT AIR FORCE BASE, Neb. (AFNS) -- Solar max may sound like the name of a super hero, but it's certainly no comic book or 3-D movie.

Solar max is actually the name for the sun's most active period in the solar cycle, consistently producing solar emissions, solar flares and sun spots.

For a little background on the sun's activities, the star goes through roughly 11-year cycles of where it is very active and also relatively calm.

The sun's last solar maximum occurred in 2000 and it is expected to awaken from its current solar minimum and get more active this year.

According to the members of the 2nd Weather Squadron, an active sun can cause all sorts of problems for us.

"Solar weather plays a huge part in the warfighter's mission," said Staff Sgt. Matthew Money, a forecaster with the space weather flight. "Impacts from solar weather can cause radio blackouts, satellite communication failure, satellite orbit changes, satellite surface charging, or short circuits, and radar clutter."

That is why the squadron's worldwide space weather team of roughly 50 active-duty members, civilians and contractors continually analyze, forecast and provide alert notifications for the entire Department of Defense, as well as a slew of other government agencies.

"When space weather causes impacts to earth that meet or exceed warning thresholds our end users are informed within minutes," said Staff Sgt. Jonathan Lash, space weather flight forecaster.

"We send out warning bulletins through a computerized distribution system, (and) we have other graphical products that show what happened in the past six hours around the globe as well as what we expect to happen in the upcoming six hours," he said.

Members of the 2nd WS rely on five ground-based solar observatories as well as a network of satellites orbiting the earth, to accomplish their mission.

"There aren't too many opportunities to be the Air Force's sole provider of something," said Lt. Col. Jim Jones, 2nd WS commander. "In this case, the mission is unique to the entire DOD."

Solar observatories are strategically placed around the globe in such places as Australia, Hawaii, Italy, Massachusetts and New Mexico. They include both optical and radio telescopes and ensure the squadron always has one eye, or ear, on the sun.

"The optical telescope network monitors solar surface features," said Master Sgt. Shane McIntire, the space weather flight chief. "It automatically tracks the sun and directs light to the instruments, which collect data and are controlled by computers. It scans specific regions at a rate of at least twice per minute."

Through filtered lenses space weather analysts are able to perform flare patrol and view sunspots to determine the magnetic complexity of the region.

"The telescope has special filters that isolate a single optical wavelength," said Master Sgt. Shane Siebert, who leads Det. 4's solar observatory for the 2nd WS at Holloman Air Force Base, N.M.

"This wavelength, 6563 angstroms, is called hydrogen alpha, or H-Alpha, and is where the majority of solar activity occurs," he said. "Analysts monitor this wavelength from sunrise to sunset, and are looking for specific signatures that may lead to solar flares and other adverse activity."

But not all of the sun's activities can be captured using optical telescopes. Some events have a unique radio-frequency signature that can also be measured.

Using a mixture of technology from the 1970s to the present, radio observatories are able to monitor frequencies in the 25-180 megahertz range, as well as eight other discrete frequencies. Their digitized output is collected by a computer and then processed and analyzed for solar activity.

"We actually are able to detect the specific strength at a given radio frequency," said Maj. Bradley Harbaugh, who commands Det. 5's solar observatory for the 2nd WS at Palehua, Hawaii. "What we detect are energetic solar emissions in (specific) frequency bands or ranges. When detected, we (are able to describe) the start time, duration, intensity and type of solar emission. This helps describe the potential impacts by identifying the characteristics of what may impact earth."

Identifying these solar emissions is crucial to the warfighter's communication abilities.

"If there is solar energy that increases on your frequency, you can try to talk into your radio, but the noise from the sun will be stronger than your transmission, therefore drowning out what you are saying," Major Harbaugh said. "As an operator, you can increase your radio power to try and 'out-broadcast' the sun, but you are also now broadcasting over a much larger area, making your transmission more susceptible to enemy detection. Therefore, the sun's impact must be a consideration when planning a mission."

The squadron's network of satellites includes those owned and operated by the DOD, NASA and the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration. They include a combination of systems that are both dedicated solely to space weather as well as a few that utilize space weather sensors.

"We gather a significant amount of data from satellites," Sergeant McIntire said. "Imagery from (satellites) can augment the ground-based network, providing real-time monitoring of solar features at wavelengths that can't be seen from the ground."

Data from all of these sources combined are continually pushed to the space weather operations center at the Air Force Weather Agency here. With this information in hand, the squadron can produce the most reliable space weather forecast possible.

However, even with all of this data, producing a space weather forecast is still much more difficult than creating one for terrestrial weather.

"Space weather is a terribly difficult science and it takes a lot of training and experience," Colonel Jones said.

"Space weather forecasting is very reactive," Sergeant Money said. "The knowledge and tools are not quite up to par in order to do accurate forecasting like we do here on Earth."

It is also important to note that today the world is much more reliant on space-based assets than they were during the last solar max, officials said. With cellular phones, portable navigation devices and satellite television receivers all part of our daily lives, a huge solar weather event could wreak havoc on quite a few different platforms.

"The impact of a solar storm in 2000 was probably not as great, due to the lower density of space technology, and the limited number of consumers utilizing the data," Major Harbaugh said. "However, the ripple from a major solar event now will more likely be felt across a much broader consumer base, the public, since there are many more assets and many more users of space data."

However, with improved technology and an increased knowledge of the sun's activities, the squadron is more prepared than ever for the upcoming solar max, Colonel Jones said.

"Since the last solar max, we've upgraded most of our numerical models in terms of both their basic science and the data they ingest," he said. "That's a direct result of the advances in sensors and the technology that enables rapid data transfer. We can react faster and see farther than ever before."

"We already have members within the unit developing forecast techniques based on signatures we see on the sensors," Sergeant Money said.

So it's a safe bet that the next couple of years will be hectic for the 2nd WS. Their mission to provide situational awareness to key decision makers will certainly keep them busy.

"In the last month alone, we've had (more than 30) reportable energy events," Major Harbaugh said. "The workload has already increased and will continue to do so for probably the next year or two."

"About a year ago, it was not uncommon for an analyst to only have one very small region of the sun to monitor," Sergeant Siebert said. "Today, it is normal for analysts to keep fairly busy monitoring four-to-six regions.

"Studies of the last solar max show that a typical day included 22 active regions, almost four times our current workload," he added.

Regardless, the squadron's space weather analysts, forecasters and technicians around the globe are ready for the sun's upcoming fury, Colonel Jones said

Yet Another New Solar Cycle 24 Sunspot Group

Posted Sunday November 15, 2009 at http://www.wcflunatall.com/nz4o4.htm

Yesterday yet another solar cycle 24 sunspot group emerged, this time in the NE quadrant of the Sun near N29E35. As of yet it has not received a number by SIDC Belgium or NOAA/SWPC. If numbered by NOAA/SWPC it would receive #11031.

This new sunspot group pushed the solar flux index (SFI) to 75.9 yesterday and could push the SFI above 80 in coming days. This would raise the maximum usable frequency (MUF) of the F layer high enough to improve propagation conditions on 20, 17 and 15 meters.

Under the very old method of counting sunspots SIDC Belgium gave the sunspot group a number of 11. But in reality only one simple sunspot actually emerged.

The solar cycle 24 sunspot group that emerged on Friday November 13, 2009 that received SIDC Belgium Catania #25 and located in the SW quadrant of the Sun has faded, with it's remnant Plage currently setting around the west limb of the Sun. It did not receive #11031 by NOAA/SWPC.

Also yesterday old solar cycle 24 sunspot group #11029 rose above the east limb of the Sun but is only a large Plage with no sunspots. Last month #11029 made it's debut as the largest and most active sunspot group in fledgling solar cycle 24.

73 & GUD DX,
Thomas F. Giella, NZ4O
Lakeland, FL, USA
nz4o@arrl.net
eList Owner/Moderator

COL LF/MF/HF/VHF/UHF Frequency Radiowave Propagation Email Reflector:
http://lists.contesting.com/mailman/listinfo/spaceweather
NZ4O Daily Solar Space Weather & Geomagnetic Data Archive:
http://www.wcflunatall.com/nz4o1.htm
NZ4O Solar Space Weather & Geomagnetic Data In Graphic & Image Format:
http://www.wcflunatall.com/nz4o2.htm
NZ4O Daily LF/MF/HF/6M Frequency Radiowave Propagation Forecast & Archive:
http://www.wcflunatall.com/nz4o3.htm
NZ4O Solar Cycle 24 Forecast Discussion & Archive:
http://www.wcflunatall.com/nz4o4.htm
NZ4O 160 Meter Radio Propagation Theory Notes:
http://www.wcflunatall.com/nz4o5.htm
NZ4O Solar Space Weather & Geomagnetic Raw Forecast Data Links:
http://www.wcflunatall.com/nz4o6.htm
Florida & U.S. Raw Weather Forecasting Resource Links:
http://www.wcflunatall.com/kn4lf13.htm

10.7-cm flux - highest yet in current Sunspot Cycle 24

It just keeps getting better! During the CQ WW Contest weekend, the solar flux climbed into the upper 70's. But, as this week unfolds, the flux climbs, with a current flux of 81! This is the highest recording yet since the first observed "new cycle sunspot" in January 2008, the "official" visual start of Sunspot Cycle 24. (We'll see where the statistical averaged solar minimum actually occurs).

Speaking of... the monthly observed smoothed count of zero, recorded in August, does not make that the statistical lowest point in the moving average, because the months prior, and the months since, have higher numbers. And, these numbers, except for August, are all increasing, each month. The current sunspot activity is further confirmation that this cycle is, albeit slow, alive and increasing in activity.

DX was great over the weekend. Even 15 meters was hot with activity. This week is one to enjoy - the CME and Flare activity continues to be low to at most moderate, leaving the geomagnetic field mostly stable. This results in fairly normal (non-depressed) ionospheric conditions.

Please feel free to post your observations of conditions on HF, this week. It would be very enlightening to hear how conditions really are, in your location. Please post your grid square / location, along with the report of working conditions and results of your activity.

This is an exciting start to the Autumn DX season!

--
73 de NW7US, Tomas David Hood - Bitterroot Valley of Montana

Singer/Songwriter/Guitarist : http://tomasdavidhood.com

Contributing editor: CQ Magazine, CQ VHF, Popular Communications, Monitoring Times magazine

Mystery of the Missing Sunspots, Solved?

Author: Dr. Tony Phillips | Credit: Science@NASA

The sun is in the pits of a century-class solar minimum, and sunspots have been puzzlingly scarce for more than two years. Now, for the first time, solar physicists might understand why.

At an American Astronomical Society press conference today in Boulder, Colorado, researchers announced that a jet stream deep inside the sun is migrating slower than usual through the star's interior, giving rise to the current lack of sunspots.

Rachel Howe and Frank Hill of the National Solar Observatory (NSO) in Tucson, Arizona, used a technique called helioseismology to detect and track the jet stream down to depths of 7,000 km below the surface of the sun. The sun generates new jet streams near its poles every 11 years, they explained to a room full of reporters and fellow scientists. The streams migrate slowly from the poles to the equator and when a jet stream reaches the critical latitude of 22 degrees, new-cycle sunspots begin to appear.



Above: A helioseismic map of the solar interior. Tilted red-yellow bands trace solar jet streams. Black contours denote sunspot activity. When the jet streams reach a critical latitude around 22 degrees, sunspot activity intensifies. [larger image] [more graphics]

Howe and Hill found that the stream associated with the next solar cycle has moved sluggishly, taking three years to cover a 10 degree range in latitude compared to only two years for the previous solar cycle.

The jet stream is now, finally, reaching the critical latitude, heralding a return of solar activity in the months and years ahead.

"It is exciting to see", says Hill, "that just as this sluggish stream reaches the usual active latitude of 22 degrees, a year late, we finally begin to see new groups of sunspots emerging."

The current solar minimum has been so long and deep, it prompted some scientists to speculate that the sun might enter a long period with no sunspot activity at all, akin to the Maunder Minimum of the 17th century. This new result dispells those concerns. The sun's internal magnetic dynamo is still operating, and the sunspot cycle is not "broken."

Because it flows beneath the surface of the sun, the jet stream is not directly visible. Hill and Howe tracked its hidden motions via helioseismology. Shifting masses inside the sun send pressure waves rippling through the stellar interior. So-called "p modes" (p for pressure) bounce around the interior and cause the sun to ring like an enormous bell. By studying the vibrations of the sun's surface, it is possible to figure out what is happening inside. Similar techniques are used by geologists to map the interior of our planet.

In this case, researchers combined data from GONG and SOHO. GONG, short for "Global Oscillation Network Group," is an NSO-led network of telescopes that measures solar vibrations from various locations around Earth. SOHO, the Solar and Heliospheric Observatory, makes similar measurements from space.

"This is an important discovery," says Dean Pesnell of NASA's Goddard Space Flight Center. "It shows how flows inside the sun are tied to the creation of sunspots and how jet streams can affect the timing of the solar cycle."

There is, however, much more to learn.

"We still don't understand exactly how jet streams trigger sunspot production," says Pesnell. "Nor do we fully understand how the jet streams themselves are generated."

To solve these mysteries, and others, NASA plans to launch the Solar Dynamics Observatory (SDO) later this year. SDO is equipped with sophisticated helioseismology sensors that will allow it to probe the solar interior better than ever before.

The Helioseismic and Magnetic Imager (HMI) on SDO will improve our understanding of these jet streams and other internal flows by providing full disk images at ever-increasing depths in the sun," says Pesnell.

Continued tracking and study of solar jet streams could help researchers do something unprecedented--accurately predict the unfolding of future solar cycles. Stay tuned for that!

Scientists Predict Solar Cycle 24 to Peak in 2013

Courtesy of the The ARRL Letter Vol. 28, No. 19 May 15, 2009

At the annual Space Weather Workshop held in Boulder, Colorado last month <http://www.swpc.noaa.gov/sww/index.html>, an international panel of experts led by NOAA's Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC) predicted that Solar Cycle 24 will peak in May 2013 with 90 sunspots per day on average. If the prediction proves true, Solar Cycle 24 will be the weakest cycle since Solar Cycle 16, which peaked with 78 daily sunspots in 1928, and ninth weakest since the 1750s, when numbered cycles began.

The panel predicted that the lowest sunspot number between cycles -- the solar minimum -- occurred in December 2008, marking the end of Solar Cycle 23 and the start of Solar Cycle 24. If December's prediction holds up <http://www.arrl.org/news/stories/2008/01/07/100/>, at 12 years and seven months Solar Cycle 23 will be the longest since 1823 and the third longest since 1755. Solar cycles span 11 years on average, from minimum to minimum.

An unusually long, deep lull in sunspots led the panel to revise its 2007 prediction that the next cycle of solar storms would start in March 2008 and peak in late 2011 or mid-2012. The persistence of a quiet sun also led the panel to a consensus that Solar Cycle 24 will be what they called "moderately weak."

Although the peak is still four years away, a new active period of Earth-threatening solar storms will be the weakest since 1928. Despite the prediction, the scientists said that Earth is still vulnerable to a severe solar storm. Solar storms are eruptions of energy and matter that escape from the Sun and may head toward Earth, where even a weak storm can damage satellites and power grids, disrupting communications, the electric power supply and GPS. A single strong blast of "solar wind" can threaten national security, transportation, financial services and otheressential functions.

The most common measure of a solar cycle's intensity is the number of sunspots -- Earth-sized blotches on the sun marking areas of heightened magnetic activity. The more sunspots there are, the more likely it is that solar storms will occur, but a major storm can occur at any time.
"As with hurricanes, whether a cycle is active or weak refers to the number of storms, but everyone needs to remember it only takes one powerful storm to cause huge problems," said NOAA scientist Doug Biesecker, who chaired the panel. "The strongest solar storm on record occurred in 1859 during another below-average cycle." The 1859 storm shorted out telegraph wires, causing fires in North America and Europe and sent readings of Earth's magnetic field soaring. It also producednorthern lights so bright that people read newspapers by their light, he said.

Biesecker cited a recent report by the National Academy of Sciences that found if a storm that severe occurred today, it could cause $1-2 trillion in damages the first year and require four to 10 years for recovery, compared to the $80-125 billion of damage that resulted from Hurricane Katrina<http://www.nap.edu/nap-cgi/report.cgi?record_id=12507&type=pdfxsum>.

The Space Weather Prediction Center is part of the National Weather Service and is one of the nine National Centers for Environmental Prediction. It is the nation's official source of space weather alerts, watches and warnings. SWPC provides real-time monitoring and forecasting of solar and geophysical events that impact satellites, power grids, communications, navigation and many other technological systems.

What's Wrong with the Sun? (Nothing)

Stop the presses! The sun is behaving normally.
By Dr. Tony Phillips: Science@NASA

So says NASA solar physicist David Hathaway. "There have been some reports lately that Solar Minimum is lasting longer than it should. That's not true. The ongoing lull in sunspot number is well within historic norms for the solar cycle."

This report, that there's nothing to report, is newsworthy because of a growing buzz in lay and academic circles that something is wrong with the sun. Sun Goes Longer Than Normal Without Producing Sunspots declared one recent press release. A careful look at the data, however, suggests otherwise.

But first, a status report: "The sun is now near the low point of its 11-year activity cycle," says Hathaway. "We call this 'Solar Minimum.' It is the period of quiet that separates one Solar Max from another."

The solar cycle, 1995-2015. The "noisy" curve traces measured sunspot numbers; the smoothed curves are predictions. Credit: D. Hathaway/NASA/MSFC

During Solar Max, huge sunspots and intense solar flares are a daily occurance. Auroras appear in Florida. Radiation storms knock out satellites. Radio blackouts frustrate hams. The last such episode took place in the years around 2000-2001.

During Solar Minimum, the opposite occurs. Solar flares are almost non-existant while whole weeks go by without a single, tiny sunspot to break the monotony of the blank sun. This is what we are experiencing now.

Although minima are a normal aspect of the solar cycle, some observers are questioning the length of the ongoing minimum, now slogging through its 3rd year.

"It does seem like it's taking a long time," allows Hathaway, "but I think we're just forgetting how long a solar minimum can last." In the early 20th century there were periods of quiet lasting almost twice as long as the current spell. (See the end notes for an example.) Most researchers weren't even born then.

Hathaway has studied international sunspot counts stretching all the way back to 1749 and he offers these statistics: "The average period of a solar cycle is 131 months with a standard deviation of 14 months. Decaying solar cycle 23 (the one we are experiencing now) has so far lasted 142 months--well within the first standard deviation and thus not at all abnormal. The last available 13-month smoothed sunspot number was 5.70. This is bigger than 12 of the last 23 solar minimum values."

In summary, "the current minimum is not abnormally low or long."

The longest minimum on record, the Maunder Minimum of 1645-1715, lasted an incredible 70 years. Sunspots were rarely observed and the solar cycle seemed to have broken down completely. The period of quiet coincided with the Little Ice Age, a series of extraordinarily bitter winters in Earth's northern hemisphere. Many researchers are convinced that low solar activity, acting in concert with increased volcanism and possible changes in ocean current patterns, played a role in that 17th century cooling.



For reasons no one understands, the sunspot cycle revived itself in the early 18th century and has carried on since with the familiar 11-year period. Because solar physicists do not understand what triggered the Maunder Minimum or exactly how it influenced Earth's climate, they are always on the look-out for signs that it might be happening again.

The quiet of 2008 is not the second coming of the Maunder Minimum, believes Hathaway. "We have already observed a few sunspots from the next solar cycle," he says. (See Solar Cycle 24 Begins.) "This suggests the solar cycle is progressing normally."

What's next? Hathaway anticipates more spotless days, maybe even hundreds, followed by a return to Solar Max conditions in the years around 2012.

Additional information and graphics on spotless days and this story is available at
http://science.nasa.gov/headlines/y2008/11jul_solarcycleupdate.htm?list1066509

Solar Cycle 24 Begins

Author: Dr. Tony Phillips | Production Editor: Dr. Tony Phillips | Credit: Science@NASA

Jan. 10, 2008: Hang on to your cell phone, a new solar cycle has just begun.

"On January 4, 2008, a reversed-polarity sunspot appeared—and this signals the start of Solar Cycle 24," says David Hathaway of the Marshall Space Flight Center.

Above: Images of the first sunspot of Solar Cycle 24 taken by the NASA/ESA Solar and Heliospheric Observatory (SOHO).

Solar activity waxes and wanes in 11-year cycles. Lately, we've been experiencing the low ebb, "very few flares, sunspots, or activity of any kind," says Hathaway. "Solar minimum is upon us."

The previous solar cycle, Solar Cycle 23, peaked in 2000-2002 with many furious solar storms. That cycle decayed as usual to the present quiet leaving solar physicists little to do other than wonder, when would the next cycle begin?

The answer is now.

"New solar cycles always begin with a high-latitude, reversed polarity sunspot," explains Hathaway. "Reversed polarity" means a sunspot with opposite magnetic polarity compared to sunspots from the previous solar cycle. "High-latitude" refers to the sun's grid of latitude and longitude. Old cycle spots congregate near the sun's equator. New cycle spots appear higher, around 25 or 30 degrees latitude.

The sunspot that appeared on January 4th fits both these criteria. It was high latitude (30 degrees N) and magnetically reversed. NOAA named the spot AR10981, or "sunspot 981" for short.

Sunspot 981 was small--only about as wide as Earth, which counts as small on the grand scale of the sun--and it has already faded away. But its three day appearance on Jan. 4-6 was enough to convince most solar physicists that Solar Cycle 24 is underway.

Doug Biesecker of NOAA's Space Weather Prediction Center in Boulder, Colorado, likens sunspot 981 "to the first robin of spring. There's still snow on the ground, but the seasons are changing." Last year, Biesecker chaired the Solar Cycle 24 Prediction Panel, an international group of experts from many universities and government agencies. "We predicted that Solar Cycle 24 would begin around March 2008 and it looks like we weren't far off," he says.

Right: The first auroras of the new solar cycle, photographed Jan. 4, 2008, by Calvin Hall of Palmer, Alaska. [more]

The onset of a new solar cycle is significant because of our increasingly space-based technological society.

"Solar storms can disable satellites that we depend on for weather forecasts and GPS navigation," says Hathaway. Radio bursts from solar flares can directly interfere with cell phone reception while coronal mass ejections (CMEs) hitting Earth can cause electrical power outages. "The most famous example is the Quebec outage of 1989, which left some Canadians without power for as much as six days."

Air travel can be affected, too.

Every year, intercontinental flights carry thousands of passengers over Earth’s poles. It's the shortest distance between, say, New York and Tokyo or Beijing and Chicago. In 1999, United Airlines made just twelve trips over the Arctic. By 2005, the number of flights had ballooned to 1,402. Other airlines report similar growth.

Solar storms have a big effect on polar regions of our planet," says Steve Hill of the Space Weather Prediction Center. "When airplanes fly over the poles during solar storms, they can experience radio blackouts, navigation errors and computer reboots all caused by space radiation." Avoiding the poles during solar storms solves the problem, but it costs extra time, money and fuel to "take the long way around."

Now for the good news: More solar storms also means more auroras—"the greatest show on Earth." During the last solar maximum, Northern Lights were spotted as far south as Arizona, Florida and California. Not so long ago, only visitors to the Arctic regularly enjoyed auroras, but with increasing attention to space weather and constantly improving forecasts, millions of people at all latitudes will know when to go out and look.



Much of this is still years away. "Intense solar activity won't begin immediately," notes Hathaway. "Solar cycles usually take a few years to build from solar minimum (where we are now) to Solar Max, expected in 2011 or 2012."

It's a slow journey, but we're on our way.

More Information

Strange but True: While Solar Cycle 24 has begun, Solar Cycle 23 has not ended. Both cycles will coexist for a period of time, perhaps a year or more, as one dies down and the other comes to life. In the months ahead we may see old-cycle sunspots and new-cycle sunspots on the sun at the same time.

NASA is gearing up to study the active sun during Cycle 24 with the launch of a new spacecraft, the Solar Dynamics Observatory. "SDO is a very special observatory," says project scientist Dean Pesnell at NASA's Goddard Space Flight Center, Greenbelt, Md. "Using a technique called helioseismic imaging, the spacecraft will be able to look inside the sun where solar activity begins. SDO will join SOHO, STEREO, Hinode and other missions already in orbit to improve our understanding of solar storms and lay the groundwork for better space weather forecasts."

Has Solar Cycle 24 started? Looks like it has!!

Space Weather News for Jan. 4, 2008
http://spaceweather.com



Solar physicists have been waiting for the appearance of a reversed-polarity sunspot to signal the start of the next solar cycle. The wait is over. A magnetically reversed, high-latitude sunspot emerged today. This marks the beginning of Solar Cycle 24 and the first step toward a new solar maximum. Intense solar activity won't begin right away. Solar cycles usually take a few years to build from solar minimum (where we are now) to Solar Max (expected in 2011 or 2012). It's a slow journey, but we're on our way!

Is a New Solar Cycle Beginning?

By Dr. Tony Phillips courtesy of Science@NASA

The solar physics community is abuzz this week. No, there haven't been any great eruptions or solar storms. The source of the excitement is a modest knot of magnetism that popped over the sun's eastern limb on Dec. 11th, pictured below in a pair of images from the orbiting Solar and Heliospheric Observatory (SOHO).

It may not look like much, but "this patch of magnetism could be a sign of the next solar cycle," says solar physicist David Hathaway of the Marshall Space Flight Center.

Above: From SOHO, a UV-wavelength image of the sun and a map showing positive (white) and negative (black) magnetic polarities. The new high-latitude active region is magnetically reversed, marking it as a harbinger of a new solar cycle.

For more than a year, the sun has been experiencing a lull in activity, marking the end of Solar Cycle 23, which peaked with many furious storms in 2000--2003. "Solar minimum is upon us," he says.

The big question now is, when will the next solar cycle begin?

It could be starting now.

"New solar cycles always begin with a high-latitude, reversed polarity sunspot," explains Hathaway. "Reversed polarity " means a sunspot with opposite magnetic polarity compared to sunspots from the previous solar cycle. "High-latitude" refers to the sun's grid of latitude and longitude. Old cycle spots congregate near the sun's equator. New cycle spots appear higher, around 25 or 30 degrees latitude.

The region that appeared on Dec. 11th fits both these criteria. It is high latitude (24 degrees N) and magnetically reversed. Just one problem: There is no sunspot. So far the region is just a bright knot of magnetic fields. If, however, these fields coalesce into a dark sunspot, scientists are ready to announce that Solar Cycle 24 has officially begun.

Below: Solar Cycle 23 is coming to an end. What's next? Image credit: NOAA/Space Weather Prediction Center.



Many forecasters believe Solar Cycle 24 will be big and intense. Peaking in 2011 or 2012, the cycle to come could have significant impacts on telecommunications, air traffic, power grids and GPS systems. (And don't forget the Northern Lights!) In this age of satellites and cell phones, the next solar cycle could make itself felt as never before.

The furious storms won't start right away, however. Solar cycles usually take a few years to build to a frenzy and Cycle 24 will be no exception. "We still have some quiet times ahead," says Hathaway.

Meanwhile, all eyes are on a promising little active region. Will it become the first sunspot of a new solar cycle? Stay tuned for updates from Science@NASA.

Calm Before the Storm (the Solar Storm)

March 10, 2006: It's official: Solar minimum has arrived. Sunspots have all but vanished. Solar flares are nonexistent. The sun is utterly quiet.

Like the quiet before a storm.

This week researchers announced that a storm is coming--the most intense solar maximum in fifty years. The prediction comes from a team led by Mausumi Dikpati of the National Center for Atmospheric Research (NCAR). "The next sunspot cycle will be 30% to 50% stronger than the previous one," she says. If correct, the years ahead could produce a burst of solar activity second only to the historic Solar Max of 1958.

http://science.nasa.gov/headlines/y2006/10mar_stormwarning.htm